Joel Klatt predicts final score, winner for Iowa-USC matchup

Joel Klatt likes the underdog on Saturday. On his show this week, the FOX analyst said Iowa's defense and style makes this "an insanely frustrating" matchup for USC and picked the Hawkeyes to win outright in Los Angeles.

"I hate this matchup for the Trojans," Klatt said. "Iowa doesn't give up explosives... they play zone, they maintain their levels."

Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET at the L.A. Memorial Coliseum, with USC favored by 6.5 points at most books and the game total hovering near 49.5. The game will air on Big Ten Network. The College Football Playoff committee has USC at No. 17 and Iowa at No. 21 this week.

Klatt's reasoning is simple; It's strength on strength. USC brings one of the nation's most productive offenses, leading the FBS in total yards per game at 503.2 and averaging roughly 40 points. Iowa counters with a top-five scoring defense allowing 14.5 points per game and a top-10 mark in yards per play allowed. Klatt likes Iowa's strengths more. "They're relentless on tips and overthrows," Klatt said.

USC's offense can roll, but when opponents force a grind-it-out game, the Trojans have been unable to win tight, physical games. Illinois gashed USC for 171 rushing yards in a 34-32 Illini win in September. Notre Dame then bogged down USC's ground game to 68 rushing yards in a 34-24 Irish victory. Those are two different paths to the same outcome.

Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley | Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

Iowa just played that kind of fight with Oregon. The Hawkeyes fell 18-16 on a last-second field goal in cold rain, but they kept a top-10 team out of the end zone for long stretches and forced a low-possession game. That is the template they'll try to copy in Los Angeles.

Beyond just play style, a few numbers back Klatt's analysis. USC sits outside the national elite against the run, allowing about 142 rushing yards per game. And Iowa's defense is one of the best in the country — per usual — ranking top five in opponent PPG and top 10 in opponent yards per play. If the Hawkeyes find enough on the ground to stay on schedule, USC’s explosive edge is muted.

"Make them go 10-12 plays to score," Klatt said. "Mix in the weather or a ball on the ground, and suddenly you’re under real duress."

The Iowa Hawkeyes | Julia Hansen/Iowa City Press-Citizen / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Joel Klatt's pick for Iowa-USC

Klatt's pick: Iowa 19, USC 16 — Hawkeyes with the upset. "I like Iowa 19-16 in another Iowa-style game. They win it outright. I'm taking those six and a half."

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Iowa Hawkeyes head coach Kirk Ferentz | Julia Hansen/Iowa City Press-Citizen / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Joel Klatt's pick for Iowa-USC

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