Joel Klatt predicts winner for Notre Dame-Pitt game in Week 12

Joel Klatt sees a tricky spot for No. 9 Notre Dame on Saturday at No. 22 Pitt, even as he picked the Irish to win while taking the Panthers against the spread. "This is a huge game for the College Football Playoff," Klatt said this week, before pointing straight at the matchup problem. "Pitt comes in with the number one rush defense in the country as it relates to yards per carry... specifically built to line up and play well against a team like Notre Dame."

ESPN's College GameDay is in Pittsburgh, kickoff is noon ET on ABC, and sportsbooks list Notre Dame around a 12.5-point road favorite with the game total near 55.5.

Notre Dame leans on its ground game with Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price, while Pitt's front has slammed the door on rushing attacks all fall. "So, the question is, how will CJ Carr react? How will he play? Can he go and win this with his arm if Notre Dame can't run the football?" Klatt said.

"They're great stopping the run... facing a team in Notre Dame that has to run the football. And we don't know what we're going to get from their quarterback [CJ Carr], even though he's very talented."

Pitt is allowing 2.5 yards per rush, which ranks top-five nationally, and that's the backbone of Phil Parker's heavy-zone unit that Klatt praised. Notre Dame counters with a balanced offense that just rushed for 248 yards in a 49-10 win over Navy, while Carr went 13-for-16 for 218 yards and three touchdowns. On the season, Carr has thrown for 2,275 yards, and Love is closing in on 1,000 rushing yards.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish quarterback CJ Carr | Michael Caterina-Imagn Images

Klatt shined a light on Carr's volatility in big moments this year. Against USC on Oct. 18, Notre Dame won 34-24 but needed the run game to carry the night as Carr finished 16-for-26 for 136 yards. That's the kind of game Pitt wants to force on Saturday.

Pitt's offense looks different, too. Since turning to Mason Heintschel, the Panthers have opened up the passing game; he's averaging more than 250 passing yards per game over his recent stretch.

There's also fresh layer to the matchup this week, courtesy of Pat Narduzzi. Asked if Notre Dame is a "must-win," the Pitt coach said, "Absolutely not. It is not an ACC game... I'd gladly get beat 103 or 110 to 10... They could put 100 up on us as long as we win the next two after that."

Pittsburgh Panthers head coach Pat Narduzzi | Rich Barnes-Imagn Images

Joel Klatt's pick for Notre Dame-Pitt

Klatt landed on Notre Dame to survive while backing Pitt with the points. "Notre Dame wins the game. They're better. They win it, but they don't win it by 12 and a half... take the points with Pitt and that defense," he said.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Notre Dame head coach Marcus Freeman | MICHAEL CLUBB/SOUTH BEND TRIBUNE / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Joel Klatt's pick for Notre Dame-Pitt

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