Joel Klatt predicts major college football upset in Week 4

Measured confidence, trench trust and a road upset are brewing.

Fox Sports college football analyst Joel Klatt is calling for the Illinois Fighting Illini to upset the Indiana Hoosiers on Saturday. | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Joel Klatt predicts a major shakeup in the Big Ten race, and he put a score on it. On Thursday’s episode of “The Joel Klatt Show,” the FOX Sports analyst called for No. 9 Illinois to upset No. 19 Indiana in Bloomington. He framed the matchup as a playoff-positioning pivot with stakes that cut beyond one Saturday night.

Klatt leaned on style, experience, and defense, then circled back to quarterback trust. He praised Luke Altmyer’s composure in tight games and questioned whether Indiana’s recent dominance will translate when Illinois drags the tempo and compresses possessions. The pick was unambiguous and detailed.

“I think Illinois wins the game outright, which means the five and a half that they’re getting is a no-brainer to me, which, again, makes me a little bit nervous,” Klatt said. “I like Illinois outright, 24–21, even as the dog.”

Joel Klatt Backs Illinois To Stun Indiana

Klatt’s case starts with context. He called Illinois–Indiana “a massive game for playoff implications,” arguing the winner tracks toward 10–2 or 11–1 and a realistic College Football Playoff bid. He was surprised by the number, describing it as a 5.5-point spread favoring Indiana in his rundown. Books now list Indiana by six, and against the spread the Hoosiers are 2–1 while Illinois is 3–0.

The substance sits in the matchup. Klatt trusts Altmyer late, pointing to his experience and mistake-free start. He expects Illinois to “turn this into an Illinois game,” slowing pace, leaning on a veteran line, and playing to a defense that thrives in man coverage and pressure looks under Aaron Henry.

Illinois Fighting Illini quarterback Luke Altmyer (9) has 709 yards and eight touchdowns through three games. | Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

That identity, he said, disrupts RPO timing, squeezes windows, and accelerates decisions that lead to takeaways.

He also credited Indiana’s rise, noting Curt Cignetti’s balanced approach, but he doubts the Hoosiers are as complete as last season. He closed with a score and a stance that doubles as a headline. Illinois 24, Indiana 21, and take the points.

Matchup Metrics That Support An Upset

Indiana’s raw production is eye-catching. The Hoosiers average 591.7 yards per game, including 307.7 rushing, and score 52.0 points per game. Their defense ranks top 10 nationally in total yards allowed and points allowed, and they sit eighth in defensive third-down rate at 21.6 percent. They also own a +4 turnover margin and a disciplined profile at 36.7 penalty yards per game.

Illinois counters with a top-five scoring defense at 7.3 points allowed and a top-15 rush defense at 74.7 yards allowed. The Illini are even better in turnover margin at +6, and their red zone defense is elite at 66.7 percent. That dovetails with Indiana’s 87.0 percent red zone conversion, which is only 72nd nationally, a leverage point if possessions shrink.

Illinois head coach Bret Bielema and the Fighting Illini are looking to upset Indiana this week on the road. | Zachary Taft-Imagn Images

Quarterback play is clean on both sides. Fernando Mendoza has 708 yards, nine touchdowns, and no interceptions at 72.4 percent completions. Altmyer sits at 709 yards, eight touchdowns, and no interceptions at 71.8 percent. If this becomes a third-down, field-position game, Illinois’ defensive efficiency, takeaway rate, and man-coverage pressure package map neatly onto Klatt’s projection for a one-score road win.

Indiana will host Illinois on Saturday at 7:30 p.m. ET on NBC.