Josh Pate Accepts Possibility of College Football Powerhouse Missing CFP

Josh Pate believes this historic Big Ten powerhouse may miss the College Football Playoff for the first time in three seasons.

Indiana's Mario Landino (97) and Stephen Daley (9) pressure Ohio State's Julian Sayin (10) during the Indiana versus Ohio State football game at Memorial Stadium on Saturday, Oct. 17, 2026. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

No. 3 Ohio State bested defending national champion Indiana 19-15 on the road last week.

The Buckeyes' victory snapped the Hoosiers' 22-game win streak and put them in the driver's seat of the Big Ten championship race.

However, the victory came at the price of starting signal-caller Julian Sayin. The 6-foot-1, 214-pounder is out indefinitely with an elbow injury, and the Buckeyes may finish the season with three-star true freshman Luke Fahey at quarterback.

Sayin's injury is the latest development in a turbulent start for Ohio State's offense in Big Ten play. The Buckeyes are volatile on the ground, and even though Jeremiah Smith looks fantastic through seven games, he has 33 more receptions, 716 more yards and 10 more touchdowns than the next most productive wide receiver.

Josh Pate: "I'm on the bus with it."

The Buckeyes participated in the previous two installments of the 12-team College Football Playoff but are at risk of missing the final one due to offensive defects. College football media personality called attention to these woes on ESPN's "Bussin' & Pate" Friday.

"Man, I'm on the bus with it," Pate said. "If they were churning out yards in the run game, and frankly this is a problem for a lot of teams with high-profile quarterbacks with high expectations and highly paid rosters, if Bo Jackson or Legend Bey was the equivalent of Zeke back in the day, I'd be okay. They haven't been that yet."

In addition to the one-dimensionality of the offense, Pate called attention to the gauntlet of a schedule that awaits Fahey and the Buckeyes. All five opponents boast a record of 4-2 or better, and two of those five opponents currently rank in the periphery of the top 25.

"Here's the problem: at USC, Oregon (maybe with Dante Moore back), Northwestern, at Nebraska, Michigan," Pate said "There's no stretch of three games there where you look and say 'that's where they'll get right.'"

A quarterback injury was referenced in a previous College Football Playoff exclusion

Florida State Seminoles quarterback Jordan Travis (13) looks to pass to his teammate. The Florida State Seminoles defeated the Miami Hurricanes 27-20 on Saturday, Nov. 11, 2023. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

In the 2024 edition of the College Football Playoff, the committee let 12-1 Alabama team take the fourth seed over 13-0 Florida State due to a season-ending injury to Seminoles' starting quarterback Jordan Travis.

Travis started 11 games before suffering the injury against North Alabama. The Seminoles won ranked games against No. 5 LSU and No. 16 Duke with Travis, and it won games at unranked Florida and against No. 14 Louisville in the ACC Championship after his injury.

Other Big Ten teams that could reach the College Football Playoff

Oct 17, 2026; Pasadena, California, USA; UCLA Bruins running back Wayne Knight (3) runs for a first down before he is stopped by Wisconsin Badgers cornerback Bryce West (5) in the second half at the Rose Bowl. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Despite the loss of its starting quarterback, UCLA possesses the clearest path to an unbeaten regular season of any Big Ten team. Current No. 16 and fellow College Football Playoff hopeful USC is likely the only other ranked foe the Bruins will meet in the regular season.

Oddly, Indiana and Iowa have easier paths to the College Football Playoff despite losing to Ohio State. The Nov. 14 matchup with USC should be the last ranked team the Hoosiers face, and the same should be true when the Hawkeyes travel to Northwestern on Nov. 7.

As Pate alluded to, Dante Moore's return could get Oregon back into the College Football Playoff race. However, the Ducks need to win out to solidify their chances, which requires taking down a hot Northwestern team and winning at Ohio State.