Josh Pate picks LSU-Ole Miss winner

Josh Pate predicts Ole Miss will hand LSU its first loss in Oxford matchup.

Ole Miss Rebels football coach Lane Kiffin is seeking to deliver the season's first loss to the LSU Tigers on Saturday. | Petre Thomas-Imagn Images

College football analyst Josh Pate is looking toward Oxford for one of the weekend’s biggest SEC matchups. During Tuesday’s episode of his College Football Show, Pate made his call on the LSU Tigers and Ole Miss Rebels clash, leaning in favor of Lane Kiffin’s team.

Pate acknowledged the numbers showed reason for skepticism about LSU. The Tigers’ passing attack has thrived under Garrett Nussmeier, but their rushing production remains near the bottom nationally. At the same time, their defense has allowed big plays through the air and on the ground. Ole Miss has defensive issues of its own, but its offense has consistently shown balance with quarterback Trinidad Chambliss leading an attack capable of scoring in multiple ways.

As Pate summarized, the matchup is less about one team’s glaring strength and more about which side can minimize its weaknesses. That dynamic led him to back Ole Miss over LSU. “So, I’ll go Ole Miss here. I’ll take them to win the game outright. I’ll take them to cover the number. And it wouldn’t surprise me at all if we look back and say the model was actually right, that Ole Miss should’ve been favored by more than a field goal,” Pate said.

LSU’s Offense Versus Ole Miss’ Defense

The numbers frame LSU’s identity in sharp terms. Nussmeier has passed for 960 yards with six touchdowns and has played through injury, but the Tigers rank 112th in rushing at just 116.8 yards per game. Pate pointed out that this reliance on the passing game has created a one-dimensional offense.

“I keep waiting for LSU to prove to me they can win a game without having to rely on Garrett Nussmeier to throw it 40 times. I keep waiting for them to prove to me they can line up, run the ball, and actually control the game. Until they do that, they are just way too one-dimensional,” he said.

LSU Tigers quarterback Garrett Nussmeier (18) will face a difficult test on the road against Ole Miss football. | Stephen Lew-Imagn Images

On the other side, Ole Miss has allowed opponents to pile up rushing yards, ranking 121st nationally at 190.5 yards allowed per game. “Ole Miss, on the other hand, is 122nd in the country in rush defense. So, it’s bad on bad when LSU runs the ball against Ole Miss’ defense,” Pate explained. That matchup could decide if LSU finds offensive balance or if Ole Miss plugs one of its biggest defensive leaks.

Adding to the challenge for LSU is its defense, which sits 102nd overall, with particularly poor marks against the pass. “Here’s the problem. LSU is 102nd in total defense. They’re 87th against the run, 108th against the pass. That’s why they’ve been in some close games that really shouldn’t have been close,” Pate said. Even with standout Rueben Bain Jr. anchoring the front, LSU has yet to deliver consistency across four quarters.

Why Ole Miss Gets The Edge

Ole Miss has built its offense on creativity and versatility. Chambliss has thrown for 719 yards and added a strong rushing element, while running back Kewan Lacy leads the SEC in touchdowns on the ground.

“Ole Miss has leaned more on their quarterback run game and spreading the ball around than in the past. Lane Kiffin is doing what Lane Kiffin does. He’ll scheme things open. They’ve had a few explosive plays through the air. They’ve used the QB in the run game. They’re trying to manufacture some balance,” Pate said.

Mississippi Rebels running back Kewan Lacy (5) has been dominant through four games, producing 358 yards and seven touchdowns on 79 carries. | Petre Thomas-Imagn Images

That balance stands in contrast to LSU’s reliance on Nussmeier. Pate emphasized that the model used for projections leaned heavily toward Ole Miss for this reason. “That’s why the model likes Ole Miss. It sees LSU’s defense and says this isn’t reliable. It sees LSU’s lack of a run game and says that’s not sustainable. And Ole Miss, even though they’ve had some defensive issues of their own, at least they’re balanced offensively. At least they can win more than one way,” he explained.

Ultimately, Pate expects Ole Miss to take advantage of LSU’s lack of dimension and come away with the win at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. The Rebels host the Tigers on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC.