Josh Pate predicts Miami-Florida State winner in Week 6

Miami expected to edge out Florida State in Week 6 after analyst prediction.

Miami football head coach Mario Cristobal and the Hurricanes are 4-0 to start the 2025 college football season. | Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

The Miami Hurricanes and Florida State Seminoles are set to meet Saturday night under the lights in one of the most anticipated games of Week 6. The matchup carries national weight, featuring a top-five Miami squad against a ranked Florida State team, with both sides looking to assert themselves in one of college football’s most storied rivalries.

College football analyst Josh Pate previewed the game during his Tuesday night episode of his College Football Show. He pointed to Miami’s advantages in the trenches, highlighted the Seminoles’ need to respond after a loss to Virginia, and ultimately gave his pick. Despite acknowledging Florida State’s strengths on offense, Pate leaned toward the Hurricanes in his final prediction.

“Miami vs. Florida State — Saturday night, 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC. This is an amazing matchup, and I think it’s being somewhat overlooked,” Pate said. He later added, “So I’ll take Miami to win and cover, though I have no confidence in that — it’s a coin flip.”

Pate Sees Miami With More Paths To Victory

Pate’s analysis emphasized Miami’s ability to control the game physically. He noted the Hurricanes’ rushing defense, which ranks inside the national top 10, has already been tested against opponents like Florida, Notre Dame and USF. That strength, he argued, could be critical in slowing down a Florida State rushing attack that sits near the top of the country statistically but has not yet faced a defense of Miami’s caliber.

He warned that Florida State cannot expect to run through Miami at will, instead needing to prove they can sustain drives against a tougher front. The Seminoles average 6.7 yards per carry, but Pate pointed out that one in every five rushing attempts against Miami has gone for zero or negative yards.

Miami football quarterback Carson Beck (11) and the Hurricanes are looking to maintain their undefeated record against Florida State on Saturday. | Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

“Florida State has to commit to the run. You aren’t going to gas Miami with big running plays frequently — just not going to happen,” he said.

On the other side of the ball, Pate underscored Miami’s offensive line and running backs as proven strengths. He framed the matchup as a test of toughness, with Miami having multiple ways to win: establishing the run, leaning on its quarterback Carson Beck, or utilizing its receiving options. Pate contrasted that with Florida State, which he believes must either run successfully or hit explosive passing plays to stay in the game.

Florida State Faces Pressure To Respond

While leaning toward Miami, Pate also outlined what Florida State must do to pull the upset. He described the Seminoles as needing to make adjustments after their loss to Virginia and to find answers to avoid being physically overpowered. Quarterback Thomas Castellanos was cited as a key figure, though Pate highlighted his struggles when asked to carry the offense through the air. “When he throws for 240+ yards, his teams are 1–5,” Pate said, arguing that more passing often correlates with desperation and risky decisions.

Receiver Duce Robinson was identified as the most important target, already accounting for more production than Florida State’s next three receiving options combined. Pate stressed that Florida State either has to sustain a ground game or rely on big pass plays down the field, noting that the intermediate passing attack is unlikely to succeed against Miami’s defense.

Josh Pate is calling on Florida State Seminoles wide receiver Duce Robinson (0), who leads the team in receptions (17), receiving yards (346) and receiving touchdowns (3), to step up in this matchup against Miami. | Melina Myers-Imagn Images

Despite his pick, Pate left the door wide open for an upset. “There’s zero shock with me if Florida State wins this game. Zero shock. It almost feels like it’s too easily laid out for Miami right now,” he said. In the end, his model aligned with oddsmakers at FanDuel, both projecting Miami as a slight favorite at –4.5.

Miami will take on Florida State at 7:30 p.m. ET Saturday on ABC.