Josh Pate picks Michigan-USC winner in Week 7 matchup

Michigan picked to beat USC as analyst favors physicality and lessons learned from past calls.

Michigan head coach Sherrone Moore and the Wolverines are seeking a big road upset win against the USC Trojans this week. / Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

On Tuesday night’s episode of Josh Pate’s College Football Show, the analyst turned his attention to one of the most compelling Big Ten clashes of the season: Michigan against USC. The primetime battle in Los Angeles features two 4–1 programs with contrasting styles, historic brands, and playoff implications.

Michigan relies on physicality and a dominant rushing attack, while USC thrives on tempo and explosive offense under head coach Lincoln Riley.

In a moment of self-awareness and humor, Pate declared his renewed trust in the Wolverines. “I have a Michigan problem, and this is obvious. I’ve gone to classes on Tuesday nights. I am taking steps to correct my Michigan problem. I’m taking the Wolverines to win. Do not embarrass me. Do not embarrass me,” he said, recalling his track record of picking against Michigan in previous seasons.

The analyst made clear that despite oddsmakers' favoring USC, he would side with the more physical team until proven wrong.

Josh Pate Chooses Michigan Football Over Lincoln Riley Firepower

Michigan’s foundation continues to rest on its punishing ground game, powered by running back Justice Haynes, who averages over 120 rushing yards per outing. Quarterback Bryce Underwood provides balance through the air, giving the Wolverines a more complete attack than a year ago.

Pate pointed to that growth as a deciding factor, reminding viewers that Michigan ran for nearly 300 yards in last season’s 27–24 win over the Trojans.

Michigan quarterback Bryce Underwood (19) and running back Justice Haynes (22) have proven to be a dynamic 1-2 backfield combo this season. / Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

USC’s passing game, led by quarterback Jayden Maiava, remains among the nation’s elite, averaging more than 300 yards per contest. Pate questioned whether that production could translate against Michigan’s top-tier defense. He acknowledged that Lincoln Riley’s system and personnel can generate quick scores but emphasized that physicality usually determines outcomes in these matchups.

“The model has USC favored by a couple of points,” Pate said. “But I’ve learned my lesson. I’m not 1.0 anymore.” His closing remarks underscored a clear message: the Wolverines’ style may not always be flashy, but it travels.

Michigan’s Identity Tested On The Road

Michigan’s statistical edge lies in its ability to control tempo. The defense ranks seventh nationally against the run and allows just 16.2 points per game. That steadiness contrasts with USC’s inconsistency on defense, which ranks outside the top 60 in scoring and has struggled against balanced attacks.

The Trojans counter with speed and a relentless pass rush that ranks among the top ten nationally in sacks. For Riley, the challenge is forcing Michigan out of rhythm early, particularly by containing Haynes on first down and pushing Underwood into obvious passing situations.

Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley is hoping his offense will overpower the Michigan Wolverines' defense on Saturday. / Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

Saturday’s game represents more than another conference clash. It’s a collision of philosophies. Pate’s choice to back the Wolverines highlights a belief in toughness over spectacle and lessons learned through experience.

Michigan will face USC at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum on Saturday at 7:30 p.m. ET on NBC.

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