Josh Pate predicts Missouri-Vanderbilt winner in Week 9

Missouri earns Josh Pate’s confidence in Week 9 as he predicts the Tigers to outlast Vanderbilt.

Missouri head coach Eli Drinkwitz and the Tigers are Josh Pate's pick to win this week's matchup against the Vanderbilt Commodores. | Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

The matchup between the No. 15 Missouri Tigers and No. 10 Vanderbilt Commodores features two SEC contenders built in remarkably similar ways. Both rely on mobile quarterbacks, physical ground attacks, and disciplined defenses that pressure opponents without heavy blitzing. Each program enters with one conference loss and a growing case to crash the College Football Playoff conversation.

College football analyst Josh Pate shared his thoughts on the matchup during his College Football Show, highlighting the mirrored nature of the teams. “Which side of the mirror wins this game?” Pate said. “It is shocking how similar these teams’ profiles look.”

Pate noted that both teams rank among the nation’s best on third and fourth downs, forcing opponents into tight possessions. He also praised their defensive discipline, saying they’re “more opportunistic than elite” but capable of generating consistent pressure with only four rushers.

Josh Pate Picks Missouri To Win And Cover

While acknowledging the parity between the two teams, Pate ultimately sided with Missouri. “I’m taking Missouri to win,” he said. “And I’m taking Missouri to cover because if they win, then they have done that.” He added that his game model viewed Vanderbilt as a slight favorite, but he believes the “wrong team is favored.”

Missouri’s rushing attack, led by Ahmad Hardy, could be the difference. Hardy has topped 100 yards in all but two games this season, and Pate suggested that if he returns to form against Vanderbilt’s top-15 run defense, the Tigers may expose hidden flaws. “If the Missouri ground game is there, one of the things to watch early on is, are they gashing Vanderbilt very suspiciously?” he said.

Missouri Tigers running back Ahmad Hardy (29) is one of the most productive runners in college football, rushing for 840 yards and 11 touchdowns on 139 carries. | Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

Vanderbilt’s offense, directed by quarterback Diego Pavia, thrives on pace control and ball security. The Commodores rank among the nation’s best in turnover margin and red zone efficiency, yet Pate warned that Missouri’s front seven might disrupt that rhythm. “How effective is the Missouri pass rush?” he said. “If you can get Vandy in third and five-plus, and I have a suspicion they can, you give yourself a lot better chance to win.”

Pate closed with conviction in Missouri head coach Eli Drinkwitz. “If we pick you, that means we believe in you,” he said. “And if we believe in you and you let us down, you fool us once, strike one. Fool us twice, strike three.”

Missouri will face Vanderbilt at FirstBank Stadium on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.