Josh Pate predicts Tennessee-Alabama winner in Week 8

Josh Pate picks Alabama to defeat Tennessee, citing mismatches in the passing game and second-half explosiveness.

Alabama head coach Kalen DeBoer is seeking his first win as coach with the Crimson Tide against Tennessee after last year's 24-17 loss to the Volunteers. | Reese Strickland-Imagn Images

The "Third Saturday in October" returns with national playoff implications as the No. 6 Alabama Crimson Tide host the No. 11 Tennessee Volunteers in Tuscaloosa. Both teams enter the rivalry 5-1, though their paths to this point could not be more different. Alabama has surged since a sluggish start, while Tennessee continues to live on the edge, escaping with narrow SEC wins.

On his weekly College Football Show, analyst Josh Pate made his pick for one of the sport’s most storied rivalries, siding with the home team to stay hot. “So, I’m going to take Alabama to win,” Pate said. “I will actually lay the number here. I do think Alabama’s going to win the game by double digits.”

Pate praised Alabama’s recent progress under offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb and quarterback Ty Simpson, pointing to growing balance and more untapped potential through the air. He also said he expects Tennessee to test Alabama’s offensive line and secondary but believes the Crimson Tide’s passing attack will eventually overwhelm the Volunteers’ defense.

Breaking Down Mismatch Between Alabama’s Passing Game and Tennessee’s Secondary

Pate called Alabama’s matchup advantage “a glaring mismatch on paper,” citing statistical gaps between the Crimson Tide’s receivers and Tennessee’s struggling secondary. Alabama ranks No. 15 nationally in passing offense at 304.5 yards per game, while Tennessee’s defense ranks No. 123 against the pass and No. 120 in explosive plays allowed.

“Buddy, you want to talk about a glaring mismatch on paper, check out Bama’s wide receiver core versus Tennessee secondary,” Pate said. “This is the No. 15 passing offense in the country versus a pass defense in the 120s.”

Alabama wide receiver Germie Bernard (5) leads the Crimson Tide with 28 receptions for 412 yards and five touchdowns. | Gary Cosby Jr.-Imagn Images

Alabama’s deep group of receivers, led by Germie Bernard, Ryan Williams, and Isaiah Horton, has helped Simpson post 16 touchdowns to just one interception while completing more than 70 percent of his passes. The Crimson Tide are also among the top 10 nationally in red zone scoring, converting on 96.4 percent of trips.

Pate said that while Alabama’s offense still has room to grow, the potential for explosive plays in this matchup could break the game open late. “There is, I think, going to be a dam-breaking spot in the second half of this game where it really goes against Tennessee,” Pate said. “There are too many big plays to be made.”

Tennessee’s Path to an Upset Involves Pressure and Turnovers

Despite his confidence in Alabama, Pate outlined what Tennessee must do to keep the game close or pull an upset. He noted that Tennessee leads the SEC in sacks and ranks second in takeaways with three defensive touchdowns over its last six games. Alabama, meanwhile, has only turned the ball over twice all season. “You lead the SEC in sacks, do you not? Yes, you do,” Pate said. “That’s one thing that needs to happen for Tennessee.”

He also pointed to Alabama’s run defense as a potential weakness. The Crimson Tide rank No. 93 nationally against the run, allowing 156.7 yards per game and 116th in explosive runs allowed. Pate said Tennessee’s No. 22 rushing offense could exploit that with tempo and big plays from running back DeSean Bishop.

Tennessee Volunteers wide receiver Chris Brazzell II (17) leads the team with 32 receptions for 536 yards and seven touchdowns. | Wesley Hale-Imagn Images

“If you can rip some of those off and especially if you can mix tempo in, which Josh Heupel does very effectively,” Pate said, “there were a lot of times last year where Tennessee left a lot on the table.”

Still, Pate said Alabama’s overall talent and offensive firepower should prevail, especially if running back Jamarion Miller returns from concussion protocol. “I think this week’s effort will be closer to 40 and I think it’ll be too much for Tennessee,” Pate said.

The Crimson Tide will host the Tennessee Volunteers on Saturday at 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC.