Josh Pate predicts winner of Alabama-Georgia game

Pate backs Georgia, citing discipline, home edge, and Alabama’s road concerns.

Georgia football coach Kirby Smart (center) and the Bulldogs will face the Alabama Crimson Tide on Saturday. | Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

A matchup between Georgia and Alabama rarely arrives without a week of high-decibel debate, but Tuesday’s episode of Josh Pate’s College Football Show turned the volume up another notch. Pate laid out why he is siding with the Bulldogs at Sanford Stadium, citing both his numbers and a gut-level read on Georgia’s response when doubted. He framed the pick through discipline, home-field edge, and Alabama’s uneven play away from home.

He also pointed to the market and his own projection.

“Let’s take a look at what the model thinks about this game. The FanDuel number right now is Georgia -2.5... Model kind of agrees with what it already was. Model’s got Georgia minus 3.5… So until I see both of those things change simultaneously, to me, this is Georgia’s game. So I’ll take Georgia to win. I’ll take Georgia to cover. And we’ll be there. Either way, we will be there. Looking really, really forward to that one.”

Why Pate Leans Georgia Over Alabama

Pate’s case begins with Georgia’s track record in Athens and extends to how Kirby Smart’s team tends to perform when challenged. He referenced a “defiant effort” template, recalling how Georgia flipped the narrative in last year’s road trip to Texas and then again in Atlanta, turning questions about toughness and trench play into emphatic answers.

That theme carries into Saturday. Even with Georgia’s modest early pressure metrics, Pate expects the Bulldogs to manufacture heat and force Alabama into long-yardage downs where discipline and protection get tested.

Georgia Bulldogs head coach Kirby Smart has his program 3-0 overall and 1-0 in SEC play entering Week 5 of the college football season. | Brianna Paciorka/News Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Discipline is a key divider for him. Alabama’s penalty rate and recent road form remain unresolved issues, while Georgia’s operation, including clean silent counts at Tennessee last season, signals a team less likely to beat itself.

Pate acknowledged Alabama’s improving health and dangerous perimeter talent, yet he circled the same hinge he always does in this matchup: can the visiting offensive line hold up, communicate, and protect well enough to let the quarterback access those weapons? Until Alabama proves it can do that in a hostile setting, he trusts Georgia at home.

Matchup Metrics That Could Swing It

The numbers inside the preview reinforce Pate’s logic. Georgia ranks among the national leaders in time of possession at 35:22, pairs a top-30 scoring offense with a top-20 rushing defense, and converts third downs at 45.7 percent.

Alabama counters with a prolific passing game, a stingy pass defense, and a strong turnover margin at plus-6, but the Crimson Tide has struggled in several key areas: 91st in penalty yards per game, 119th in third-down defense, and 112th in red-zone defense, with opponents scoring on every trip.

Georgia Bulldogs quarterback Gunner Stockton (14) has 721 passing yards and four touchdowns, as well as 124 rushing yards and three scores on the ground. | Brett Davis-Imagn Images

Those pressure points intersect directly with the stress of Sanford Stadium. If Georgia protects Gunner Stockton and maintains balance, the Bulldogs can stay ahead of the sticks and test Alabama’s red zone integrity.

If Alabama’s front generates the top-five pressure rate it has shown and cleans up the penalties, Ty Simpson has been ruthlessly efficient when kept clean. That is the Tide’s path. Pate’s pick, however, rests on which team has answered these questions more consistently in this environment. His answer is Georgia.

No. 17 Alabama (2-1) at No. 5 Georgia (3-0) kicks off Saturday, Sept. 27 at 7:30 p.m. EDT on ABC.