Josh Pate predicts the winner of Oklahoma-Auburn game

Josh Pate trusts Oklahoma’s defense to outlast Auburn in Week 4.

Auburn Tigers head coach Hugh Freeze and Oklahoma Sooners head coach Brent Venables will face each other in Week 4. | Jake Crandall/ Advertiser / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Auburn Tigers and Oklahoma Sooners meet Saturday in Norman in one of Week 4’s marquee SEC games. Oklahoma opened as a 6.5-point favorite and enters the matchup with the edge in oddsmakers’ eyes and in the eyes of analyst Josh Pate.

Pate previewed the game on his show, making clear he expects Brent Venables’ Sooners to handle Auburn. He pointed to Oklahoma’s defensive coordinator as a key factor and questioned whether the Tigers have enough through the air to keep up.

“Auburn at Oklahoma. Saturday,” Pate said during his Tuesday iteration of his College Football Show podcast. “Don’t overthink the room on this, guys. Don’t overthink the room. Sometimes the headlines are really a key part of the game. And what will the headline be on this game? The headline will be, uh oh, Jackson Arnold returning to Oklahoma. That’s a big deal. That’s a big deal.”

Pate Breaks Down Auburn's Passing Limitations

Pate highlighted Auburn’s struggles in the passing game, noting how predictable the Tigers have looked early in the year. “Their pass game is very limited. Watched a lot of Auburn football this year, and almost everything in the passing game is within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage,” he said.

“And you look at those little green dots on that pass spray chart and they’re all underneath and they’re all out to the left and out to the right and there is nothing over the middle deep third of the field. Nothing.”

Auburn Tigers quarterback Jackson Arnold (11) has passed for 501 yards and four touchdowns, plus 192 yards and four scores on the ground. | Jake Crandall/ Advertiser / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

He added that Oklahoma’s defense is unlikely to let Auburn lean on its ground game for long stretches. “If Oklahoma gets up early and they force Auburn to throw to stay in it, I hate that recipe. Hate it,” Pate said.

His evaluation suggested the Sooners’ front seven and defensive schemes are well-positioned to make life difficult for quarterback Jackson Arnold.

Why Oklahoma Is Favored To Win

The oddsmakers and Pate’s own model align on the Sooners. Oklahoma was listed at -6.5, and Pate shared that his projection had the Sooners favored by even more. “We love Oklahoma in this game,” he said.

“The model has OU all the way out to -9. We made this one of our best bets on Sunday night. If you were watching, you know, we got down on Oklahoma minus five and a half. That number has moved. It wouldn’t surprise me if it crossed seven. So give me Oklahoma to win and give me Oklahoma to cover. I just don’t love the spot for Auburn at all.”

Oklahoma linebacker Sammy Omosigho (7) leads the team with 14 total tackles and Josh Pate believes the Sooners' defense will outshine Auburn's offense. | SARAH PHIPPS/THE OKLAHOMAN / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Other outlets remain split, with some picking Oklahoma in a close fashion and others projecting an Auburn upset. Still, Pate believes the combination of a strong Sooners defense and Auburn’s offensive limitations gives Oklahoma the advantage.

Oklahoma will try to back up Pate’s confidence when it faces Auburn at Memorial Stadium on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET.