Kansas State vs. Iowa State football prediction: What the analytics say

Kansas State and Iowa State open the 2025 college football season, as the Farmageddon rivalry kicks off from Ireland in Week 0. Let’s check in with the latest predictions for the matchup from an expert football model that simulates games.

Both teams are expected to be contenders in what appears to be a very competitive Big 12 Championship picture later on, so a win in this first matchup will be critical.

Kansas State returns the core of a promising offense featuring quarterback Avery Johnson and tailback Dylan Edwards, while linebacker Austin Romaine leads a talented defensive front seven group.

Iowa State also brings back its signal caller in Rocco Becht, but the offense could take a step back after losing its pair of thousand-yard receivers this offseason.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Kansas State vs. Iowa State football game prediction

Iowa State vs. Kansas State football game prediction 2025: What the analytics say — Iowa State vs. Kansas State predictions 2025 | Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images

On the day of the Week 0 kickoff, the models are taking a view similar to the bookmakers, and are giving the Wildcats a decent advantage against the Cyclones on the same field.

Kansas State is favored by a decent margin according to the index, coming out ahead in the majority 62.3 percent of the computer’s updated simulations of the game.

And while Iowa State wasn’t projected to win outright, it did come out ahead of the Wildcats in a strong minority 37.7 percent of the other simulations.

In total, the Wildcats emerged as the outright winner in 12,460 of the index’s calculations, while the Cyclones edged out K-State in the other 7,540 predictions.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game? Expect a close one.

When taking an average of the 20,000 simulations, Kansas State is projected to be just 4.3 points better than Iowa State on the same field, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that would be enough for the Wildcats to cover the spread against the Cyclones.

That’s because Kansas State is a 3.5 point favorite against Iowa State, according to the updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 50.5 points for the game.

And it set the moneyline odds for Kansas State at -162 and for Iowa State +134 to win the game outright.

On SI predicts... Wildcats vs. Cyclones prediction: Who wins, and why?

What the bettors say about the game

A slight majority of bettors expect the Wildcats will take care of the Cyclones, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Kansas State is getting 53 percent of the bets to cover the spread in a victory.

The other 47 percent of wagers project Iowa State will either win the game outright in an upset, or keep the game to a field goal or less in a loss.

More... Iowa State vs. Kansas State predictions: What the oddsmakers say

Kansas State vs. Iowa State football game prediction 2025 — Kansas State vs. Iowa State football prediction 2025 | Scott Sewell-Imagn Images

College Football Power Index: How good is it?

The Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

How accurate has the College Football Power Index computer prediction model been in recent memory? Last season, it was one of a select few to surpass the 70 percent success threshold.

Predicting a total of 799 college football games a year ago, the Power Index computers were correct for 70.964 percent of their final picks, ranking eighth nationally out of 55 other football models.

And it was one of a select few models that went over 50 percent when making its predictions against the spread, coming out ahead in 52.235 percent of its ATS projections. That was good for second-best among all college football prediction models among 55 various outlets.

Over the last decade, the Football Power Index has proven correct on 75 percent of FBS college football game predictions, including in 73 percent of matchups when it favored a team with at least 70 percent likelihood to win.

How to watch Kansas State vs. Iowa State

When: Sat., Aug. 23
Where: Dublin, Ireland

Time: 12 p.m. Eastern
TV: ESPN network