Texas Tech vs. BYU, Big 12 Championship prediction by ESPN football computer

More than just the Big 12 championship is on the line this weekend. Texas Tech and BYU play in a rematch of their regular season meeting with a place in the College Football Playoff on the horizon.

Win, and Texas Tech is in. Lose, and the Red Raiders are almost certainly in, too. But a win here would give them a first round bye.

BYU is not even technically inside the 12-team bracket coming into Arlington despite a strength of record that ranks top-ten in FBS and its only loss against this Red Raider team.

Still, the Cougars have to win to make the playoff. Lose, and they are out.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

BYU vs. Texas Tech prediction

So far, the models expect this game to go decisively one way.

Texas Tech has emerged as the consensus outright winner in the majority 66.6 percent of the computer simulations of the matchup.

That leaves BYU as the presumptive winner in the remaining 33.4 percent of sims.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game? Despite the discrepancy in the overall simulations, the model still forecasts a close matchup.

Texas Tech is projected to be just 4.2 points better than BYU on the same field, according to the latest model forecast.

If so, that would not be enough to cover the spread, as Texas Tech is a 12.5 point favorite against BYU, according to the latest game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

How good is the prediction model?

How accurate was the College Football Power Index computer prediction model last Saturday?

Projecting the games a week ago, the Power Index models correctly predicted 74.6 percent of all games and hit 50 percent against the spread.

Predicting a total of 799 college football games a year ago, the Power Index computers were correct for 70.964 percent of their final picks, ranking eighth nationally out of 55 other football models.

Over the last decade, the Football Power Index has proven correct on 75 percent of FBS college football game predictions, including in 73 percent of matchups when it favored a team with at least 70 percent likelihood to win.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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