LSU vs. Arkansas score prediction by expert football model

LSU and Arkansas are programs in transition, both with interim head coaches, and each looking to build a more solid foundation for the future as they square off in Week 12 college football action.

Arkansas is yet to win a game in SEC competition in five tries this season, while LSU is 2-4 in the conference and has lost four of its last five games overall at 5-4.

What do the analytics predict as the Tigers and Razorbacks face off this weekend?

For that, we turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how LSU and Arkansas compare in this Week 12 football game, and use it to lock in our own projection.

LSU vs. Arkansas score prediction

Despite everything, the model is still sticking with the Tigers over the Razorbacks this time.

SP+ predicts that LSU will defeat Arkansas by a projected score of 31 to 27 and will win the game by an expected margin of 4.6 points in the process.

The model gives the Tigers a narrow 61 percent chance of outright victory over the Hogs.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ college football prediction model is 286-281 against the spread with a 50.4 win percentage. Last week, it was 23-28 (45.1%) in its picks against the spread.

Who is favored?

The bettors also like the Tigers in this game, but not by as much as a touchdown.

LSU is a 5.5 point favorite against Arkansas, according to the latest game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 57.5 points for the matchup, and set the moneyline odds for LSU at -220 and for Arkansas at +184 to win outright.

What we think will happen

LSU has found an identity on the defensive side of the ball, ranking 38th in total yards allowed and 19th in points allowed nationally.

Meanwhile, Arkansas, despite being just 2-7 and 0-5 in SEC play, brings a dynamic offense — 8th in the FBS in total yards with nearly 485 per game, and 21st in scoring with 35.4 points per contest.

However, despite Arkansas’ offensive firepower, their defensive struggles are glaring: they rank 124th in total yards allowed and 125th in points allowed.

LSU’s turnover margin also tilts in their favor (+3 for LSU vs. –7 for Arkansas) and gives the Tigers an extra advantage in critical moments.

On offense, LSU remains a work in progress — ranked 105th in total yardage and 98th in scoring with just 23.7 points per game.

Expect LSU to leverage their defense early, force Arkansas into mistakes, and turn this into a controlled, disciplined win on their home turf.

LSU -5.5
Tigers to win -220
Take the under

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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