LSU vs. Florida prediction: Who wins, and why?

Here’s what you should watch for as LSU and Florida square off in college football’s Week 3 action in primetime, with our updated prediction for the game.

Florida is skating on thin ice as fans renew their calls for head coach Billy Napier to be fired after the team’s shocking upset loss at home last week against then-unranked USF.

Questionable coaching decisions, poor execution, and badly-timed penalties were to blame for the Gators’ defeat a week ago, leading to speculation that Napier’s management of the team has deteriorated further this season.

No such questions for Brian Kelly as of yet, as LSU comes into this weekend with a perfect 2-0 record that includes a signature victory on the road against Clemson.

Armed with what looks like one of college football’s most-improved defenses and quarterback Garrett Nussmeier back in place to lead one of the nation’s most productive vertical attacks, the Tigers appear to be an early favorite to make a run at the SEC title.

What can we expect as the Gators and Tigers meet in this historic SEC rivalry?

Here’s what you need to watch for as LSU and Florida square off in this Week 3 college football game, with our updated prediction.

LSU vs. Florida prediction: What to watch for

LSU Tigers vs. Florida Gators football game prediction 2025 — Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

1. Third down

Part of LSU’s improvement on the defensive side of the ball is its superb play on the most important down so far through two games.

The unit has played its best football in third down situations, holding opponents to just 23 percent success, allowing 6 conversions on 26 attempts, and ranking 22nd in FBS.

Florida has been below average on third down offensively, converting 11 of its 25 opportunities for 44 percent success, ranking 54th in the country.

LSU defensive coordinator Blake Baker is known to save his most aggressive play calls for third down, favoring a variety of blitzes to frustrate opponents, has been especially successful at containing mobile quarterbacks and restraining their running ability on shorter-yardage situations.

2. Finishing drives

In last year’s loss against the Gators, the LSU offense was able to create four scoring drives, but only one of them resulted in a touchdown, the other three being long field goals in addition to turnovers on downs on the plus side of the field.

This season, LSU has driven eight times into the opponents’ red zone and only four of those have ended with touchdowns, and three resulting in field goals, resulting in Kelly stating the obvious: “We need to score more points.”

Florida’s third down defense has proven successful this season, allowing opponents to convert just 25 percent of the time, a potential stumbling block for LSU’s offense to build consistency and finish scoring drives.

Especially after star tight end Trey’Dez Green was listed as doubtful for the game by LSU after he left last week’s win over Louisiana Tech with a knee injury.

Without him on the field, the LSU attack is deprived of a critical outlet in short yardage situations on third down and in the red zone, and Florida gains a notable advantage by not having to spend its defensive resources on containing such a prominent target.

3. Gators on the ground

Florida’s rushing attack has been inconsistent this season. Running the ball 70 times through 2 games, it averages a solid 4.8 yards per carry, but 24 of those carries, or 34 percent of UF’s rushing capacity, went for 1 or fewer yards. The Gators also lead the SEC in negative rushing plays.

Jadan Baugh is an exception, ranking third among SEC backs with 197 rushing yards and leads the conference with 7.3 yards per attempt, working behind one of college football’s more experienced offensive lines.

But part of LSU’s defensive renaissance has been its performance against the rush, stacking bodies against opposing rushers to the effect of ranking 9th nationally in run defense, allowing 1.89 yards per run, and have recorded 9 negative run defense plays.

Watch how the battle between Gators center Jake Slaughter and tackle Austin Barber plays out against LSU’s impressive transfer edge rusher Jack Pyburn and middle field defender Harold Perkins as it relates to Florida trying to run the ball early on.

Who is favored?

LSU is a 6.5 point favorite against Florida, according to the latest updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 47.5 points for the matchup.

And it set the moneyline odds for LSU at -250 and for Florida at +202 to win outright.

LSU vs. Florida prediction: Who wins?

LSU’s offense has not yet played up to its potential, scoring 40 points in two weeks. Going against Clemson’s excellent defense is one thing, but tacking on just 23 points against the Conference USA’s sixth-place team was not what was expected.

There’s too much receiving talent combined with Garrett Nussmeier’s arm to not be averaging nearly twice that much per game, and it’s in games like these where the offense wants to prove itself.

DJ Lagway and the Gators’ skill threats will have more success than the two offenses that LSU has played up to this point, with a variety of productive outlets to stretch the field and a competent ground game to lengthen drives and burn up game clock.

Enough to keep this a one score game? Given how LSU’s offense is yet to find that explosiveness we expect from it and Florida’s general concentration of talent on the field, we’re guessing yes. But this is LSU’s game to win.

College Football HQ picks...

LSU wins 27-20
Covers the spread
And hits the under

More: LSU vs. Florida score prediction by expert football model