LSU vs. Florida score prediction by expert football model

What the analytics predict for LSU vs. Florida in this Week 3 college football game from an expert model that projects scores.

LSU Tigers vs. Florida Gators score prediction 2025 | Alex Martin/Greenville News / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

LSU and Florida square off under the lights in this SEC opener on Saturday night as college football’s Week 3 action gets underway. Here’s the latest prediction for the game from an expert analytical model that projects scores.

LSU checks in at an-already consequential 2-0 after taking out then fourth-ranked Clemson on the road while debuting what looks like a revamped defensive rotation, propelled to the No. 3 national ranking and in the early mix for the SEC title.

On the other side is a head coach that once again finds himself on the hot seat.

Billy Napier is under newfound pressure to right the ship after the Gators, ranked No. 13 nationally a week ago, stumbled in an upset loss at home to then-unranked USF, falling out of the polls themselves as a result and with fans renewing calls for him to be fired.

Florida isn’t quite ready to pull the plug on Napier yet, however, given how strongly his team finished last season, and a good showing on the road in one of college football’s most intense road environs could give him another boost of confidence.

That’s what this game did for the Gators last season, when as an underdog playing what was considered a lost season, upset a ranked LSU team late in the year and effectively destroyed what remained of its College Football Playoff chances.

What do the analytics suggest will happen as the Gators and Tigers meet in this SEC opener?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how LSU and Florida compare in this Week 3 college football game.

LSU vs. Florida score prediction

As might be expected, the models are siding with the home team in this SEC clash, but by a margin considerably closer than they would prefer, and could give Gators fans some hope.

Give the Tigers a field goal, according to this prediction.

SP+ predicts that LSU will defeat Florida by a projected score of 28 to 25 and will win the game by an expected margin of just 2.8 points in the process.

The model is giving LSU a narrow 57 percent chance to defeat the Gators outright.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ college football prediction model is 50-48 against the spread with a 51.0 win percentage.

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How to pick LSU vs. Florida

Predictably, the sportsbooks are siding with the Tigers over the Gators here.

LSU is a 7.5 point favorite against Florida at home, according to the latest updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 46.5 points for the matchup.

And it set the moneyline odds for LSU at -275 and for Florida at +220 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take...

• Florida +7.5
• LSU to win -275
• Bet over 46.5 points

A slight majority of bettors are siding with the home team against the visitors in this SEC opener for these rivals.

LSU is getting 61 percent of bets to cover the spread in a win over the Gators by at least 8 points to stay undefeated this week.

The other 39 percent of wagers project the Gators will either upset the Tigers a second-straight year, or at least lose this game by less than a touchdown.

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Computer prediction

Most other football analytical football models are also siding with the Tigers to take care of the Gators at home and avoid the upset.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

The model had LSU come out as the projected winner in the majority 61.6 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the game.

That left the Gators as the presumptive winner in the remaining 38.4 percent of sims.

And this model foresees the same margin of victory as the SP+ projection when calculating a prospective scoreline for the matchup.

LSU is projected to be just 3 points better than Florida on the same field in both teams’ current form, according to the model’s latest forecast.

How accurate was the College Football Power Index computer prediction model last Saturday?

Projecting the games a week ago, the Power Index models correctly predicted 73.5 percent of all games and hit 48.4 percent against the spread.

Predicting a total of 799 college football games a year ago, the Power Index computers were correct for 70.964 percent of their final picks, ranking eighth nationally out of 55 other football models.

Over the last decade, the Football Power Index has proven correct on 75 percent of FBS college football game predictions, including in 73 percent of matchups when it favored a team with at least 70 percent likelihood to win.

More: ESPN computer predicts LSU vs. Florida game winner

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How to watch LSU vs. Florida

When: Sat., Sept. 13
Where: LSU

Time: 7:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: ABC network

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