ESPN computer predicts LSU vs. Florida game winner

Expert prediction for LSU vs. Florida in this Week 3 college football game from a model that simulates games and picks winners.

LSU vs. Florida prediction | Stephen Lew-Imagn Images

LSU and Florida are set to meet in a critical SEC opener as college football’s Week 3 action gets underway on Saturday. Let’s take a look at the latest prediction for the game from an expert analytical football model that simulates games and picks winners.

Florida needs to make a statement here, after making the wrong kind last week, dropping a 2-point decision at home against unranked, and now ranked, USF, as the then-No. 13 team in the country, now unranked.

That predictably has the proverbial vultures circling around Gators head coach Billy Napier, but he can help change the narrative around his tenure and his team with a good showing here, as they did last season, when they upset ranked LSU at home.

This version of LSU has performed well so far, marching out to a 2-0 mark on the back of a signature win at then-No. 4 Clemson and looking like a much-improved team on the defensive side of the ball after scoring some key transfers.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

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LSU vs. Florida prediction

As might be expected given the Gators’ recent struggles, the current trajectory finds the models siding with the home team in this SEC opener, but by a close margin.

LSU is the current favorite to win over Florida, coming out ahead in the majority 61.6 percent of the computer’s latest simulations of the game.

That leaves Florida as the presumptive winner in the remaining 38.4 percent of sims.

In total, the Tigers come out ahead in 12,320 of the computer’s latest simulations of the matchup, while the Gators edged out LSU in the other 7,680 predictions.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game? This one could come down to the final play on the Bayou.

LSU is projected to be just 3 points better than Florida on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that wouldn’t be enough for the Tigers to cover the spread against the Gators.

That’s because LSU is a 7.5 point favorite against Florida, according to the latest game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 48.5 points for the matchup.

And it set the moneyline odds for LSU at -280 and for Florida at +225 to win outright.

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Where the money is going

A slight majority of bettors are siding with the home team against the visitors in this SEC opener for these rivals, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

LSU is getting 61 percent of bets to cover the spread in a win over the Gators by at least 8 points to stay undefeated this week.

The other 39 percent of wagers project the Gators will either upset the Tigers a second-straight year, or at least lose this game by fewer than 8 points.

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LSU vs. Florida future projections

Despite being favorites in this game, the index computer metrics are still down on LSU as a team going forward when projecting its national achievements.

LSU is still stuck at just 1.3 percent odds to win the SEC Championship this season, tied with Arkansas at ninth-place in the conference.

That has affected its playoff hopes, as the models forecast the Tigers have a 26.2 percent chance to qualify for the postseason field, ranking eighth in the SEC.

The computer models project LSU will win just 7.7 games, which would mark another regression for head coach Brian Kelly after winning 9 games a year ago.

Florida is effectively out of the SEC title picture already, as the models give it a 0.6 percent chance to win the league crown and a 4.9 percent shot at the playoff.

What’s more, the models give the Gators a meager 5.2 win projection in 2025.

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College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

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How good is the prediction model?

How accurate was the College Football Power Index computer prediction model last Saturday?

Projecting the games a week ago, the Power Index models correctly predicted 73.5 percent of all games and hit 48.4 percent against the spread.

Predicting a total of 799 college football games a year ago, the Power Index computers were correct for 70.964 percent of their final picks, ranking eighth nationally out of 55 other football models.

Over the last decade, the Football Power Index has proven correct on 75 percent of FBS college football game predictions, including in 73 percent of matchups when it favored a team with at least 70 percent likelihood to win.

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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