LSU vs. Houston score prediction by expert football model

LSU finds itself in transition brought about by failure, while Houston comes into the college football bowl season on the upswing following a successful campaign heading into the 2025 Texas Bowl.

Houston played to a 9-3 record in a promising second season under head coach Willie Fritz, improving from a five-win effort a year ago, and should have most of its personnel on the field.

LSU (7-5) dumped Brian Kelly and will bring on Lane Kiffin in the biggest coaching move of the season, but will have interim Frank Wilson on the sideline for the last time in this matchup.

What do the analytics predict as the Tigers and Cougars meet in this matchup?

For that, we turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how LSU and Houston compare in the Texas Bowl game, and use it to lock in our own projection.

LSU vs. Houston score prediction

The models are still siding with the SEC side of this matchup, but in a very close game.

SP+ predicts that LSU will defeat Houston by a projected score of 24 to 22 and will win the game by an expected margin of 1.9 points in the process.

The model gives the Tigers a narrow 55 percent margin against the Cougars outright.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ college football prediction model is 391-370 against the spread with a 51.4 win percentage. Last time out, it was 4-5 (44.4%) in its picks against the spread.

Who is favored?

Bettors take a slightly different view, and although they also see a close matchup, they are taking the Big 12 squad in this postseason clash.

Houston is a narrow 1.5 point favorite against LSU, according to the latest game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 42.5 points for the matchup, and set the moneyline odds for Houston at -112 and for LSU at -104 to win outright.

What we think will happen

LSU spent the early part of the season highly-ranked and apparently headed for College Football Playoff consideration, but its offense never played up to its potential, and in time even its stalwart defense gave way, losing to every ranked SEC opponent on its schedule.

Mental factors as much as physical or strategic ones play outsized roles in bowl game outcomes, and right now Houston is the more confident team, looking for a 10th win, and playing with most of its key contributors on the field rather than opting out.

College Football HQ predicts: Houston defeats LSU, and covers the spread.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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