LSU vs. Ole Miss score prediction by expert football model

What the analytics predict for LSU vs. Ole Miss in this Week 5 college football game from an expert model that projects scores.

LSU vs. Ole Miss score prediction 2025 | Alex Martin/Greenville News / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

This year’s Magnolia Bowl finds No. 4 LSU on the road against No. 13 Ole Miss as college football’s Week 5 slate kicks off on Saturday. Here is the latest prediction for the game from an expert model that projects scores.

LSU is undefeated through four games, mostly on the back of one of college football’s more improved defenses, even if this offense, branded as one of the sport’s best coming into the season, is yet to completely live up to that lofty billing.

Ole Miss is likely to play backup quarterback Trinidad Chambliss in this game, although he hasn’t looked like the second-fiddle, accounting for 5 all-purpose touchdowns as the engine of an offense that has averaged 42 points per game with him at the wheel.

What do the analytics suggest will happen as the Tigers pay a visit to the Rebels?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how LSU and Ole Miss compare in this Week 5 college football game.

LSU vs. Ole Miss score prediction

Brian Kelly’s team could be on pace for its first loss of the season this weekend, if the models are correct in their assumption.

SP+ predicts that Ole Miss will defeat LSU outright by a projected score of 29 to 23 and will win the game by an expected margin of 5.7 points in the process.

The model gives the Rebels a 64 percent chance of outright victory over the Tigers.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ college football prediction model is 94-101 against the spread with a 48.2 win percentage.

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How to pick the game

The bookies also foresee the Rebels as being the better of these two teams right now.

Ole Miss is a 1.5 point favorite against LSU, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 57.5 points for the matchup.

And it set the moneyline odds for Ole Miss at -120 and for LSU at +100 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take...

• Ole Miss -1.5
• Rebels to win -120
• Bet under 57.5 points

That’s what most bettors are doing when faced with the choice between the Rebels and Tigers, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Ole Miss is getting 60 percent of bets to win the game by at least 2 points and cover this narrow point spread to stay undefeated.

The other 40 percent of wagers project LSU will either pull off the upset and take down the Rebels outright, or will come within a single point in defeat.

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Computer prediction

Most other football analytical models are also siding with the Rebels over the Tigers in this SEC rivalry classic.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Ole Miss is a considerable favorite in the matchup, projected to win outright in the majority 73.3 percent of the computer’s simulations of the game.

That leaves LSU as the presumptive winner in the remaining 26.7 percent of sims.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game? Give the Rebels a touchdown over the Tigers in this one.

Ole Miss is projected to be 6.5 points better than LSU on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s 20,000 simulations.

How accurate was the College Football Power Index computer prediction model last Saturday?

Projecting the games a week ago, the Power Index models correctly predicted 72.3 percent of all games and hit 52.3 percent against the spread.

Predicting a total of 799 college football games a year ago, the Power Index computers were correct for 70.964 percent of their final picks, ranking eighth nationally out of 55 other football models.

Over the last decade, the Football Power Index has proven correct on 75 percent of FBS college football game predictions, including in 73 percent of matchups when it favored a team with at least 70 percent likelihood to win.

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How to watch LSU vs. Ole Miss

When: Sat., Sept. 27
Where: Ole Miss

Time: 3:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: ABC network

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