Michigan vs. Michigan State score prediction by expert football model

Big Ten rivals square off this weekend as newly-ranked Michigan hits the road against Michigan State in college football’s Week 9 action on Saturday. What do the expert prediction models make of this classic rivalry game?

Michigan re-emerged in the No. 25 position in this week’s AP rankings after beating Washington, improving to 3-1 in Big Ten competition with a 5-2 overall mark and hoping to force its way back into the conference championship picture.

No such luck for Michigan State, which fell to 0-4 in Big Ten play and has failed to come away with even 14 points in either of its last two games while allowing 76 combined points in losses against UCLA and Indiana in that span.

What do the analytics suggest will happen as the Wolverines and Spartans duke it out for the Paul Bunyan Trophy?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Michigan and Michigan State compare in this Week 9 college football game, and use it to lock in our own projection.

Michigan vs. Michigan State score prediction

Predictably, the model is siding with the Wolverines in this rivalry, and by one of the wider margins of any game this college football weekend.

SP+ predicts that Michigan will defeat Michigan State by a projected score of 34 to 18 and will win the game by an expected margin of 15.8 points in the process.

The model gives the Wolverines a solid 84 percent chance of outright victory.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ college football prediction model is 210-201 against the spread with a 51.1 win percentage. Last week, it was 35-24 (59.3%) in its picks against the spread.

Who is favored?

No surprises here, as the Wolverines are considered to be better than two touchdowns against the reeling Spartans, according to the betting market consensus.

Michigan is a 14.5 point favorite against Michigan State, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 48.5 points for the matchup.

And it set the moneyline odds for Michigan at -630 and for Michigan State at +450 to win outright.

Our final word

Michigan’s defense is coming off a strong performance while the Spartans’ offensive attack seems to be in a free-fall, playing nowhere near what they hoped quarterback Aidan Chiles and his transfer receivers were capable of.

Strange things can happen in rivalry games, and if Michigan State can find success on early downs and move into scoring position, then they could tighten this game more than most people expect they can.

Especially if the Wolverines’ offense slips into a funk or suffers an early turnover or fails to convert its initial third down opportunities.

Neither of these offenses are particularly great on third down, but the Spartans are positively dismal defending it, ranking 126th in the country in that category.

Michigan will want to run the ball and establish dominance in the trenches while eating up the game clock, which could cut into the total.

We’re departing from the SP+ model’s wisdom in this matchup, not over the outcome, but by the margin.

Michigan State +14.5
Wolverines to win -630
Bet under 48.5 points

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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