Michigan vs. Texas prediction by ESPN football computer forecasts a close game

SEC and Big Ten blue bloods face off in college football bowl season this week, as Texas and Michigan square off in the 2025 edition of the Citrus Bowl game.

Opt-outs and transfer exits will do a number on the Texas roster, with most of its defense expected to not play, and running back Quintrevion Wisner and wide receiver DeAndre Moore transferring out.

Michigan is in the midst of some change itself after firing head coach Sherrone Moore and hiring Kyle Whittingham to replace him, with interim coach Biff Poggi estimating up to 25 players could opt out.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Michigan vs. Texas prediction

The models expect the SEC side of this matchup to prevail, but forecast a very close game.

Texas came out as the presumptive winner in the slight majority 57.4 percent of the computer simulations of the game.

That leaves Michigan as the expected victor in the remaining 42.6 percent of sims.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

Texas is projected to be just 1.8 points better than Michigan on the same field in both teams' current composition, according to the model's latest forecast.

If so, that would not be enough for the Longhorns to cover the spread, as Texas is a 7.5 point favorite against Michigan, according to the latest game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

How good is the prediction model?

How accurate was the College Football Power Index computer prediction model last Saturday?

Projecting the games this season, the Power Index models correctly predicted 74 percent of all games and hit 48.1 percent against the spread.

Predicting a total of 799 college football games a year ago, the Power Index computers were correct for 70.964 percent of their final picks, ranking eighth nationally out of 55 other football models.

Over the last decade, the Football Power Index has proven correct on 75 percent of FBS college football game predictions, including in 73 percent of matchups when it favored a team with at least 70 percent likelihood to win.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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