Notre Dame vs. Miami score prediction from expert football model

What the analytics predict for Notre Dame vs. Miami in this Week 1 college football game from an expert model that projects scores and picks winners.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Miami Hurricanes football game score prediction 2025 | MICHAEL CLUBB/SOUTH BEND TRIBUNE / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Notre Dame and Miami square off in the third matchup between top 10 teams on the same field in Sunday night’s Week 1 college football action. Here is the latest prediction for the game from an expert model that projects scores and picks winners.

Notre Dame was college football’s national championship runner-up a year ago and projects to be among the final dozen when the playoff comes around again.

But between now and then, the Fighting Irish play a somewhat difficult schedule that opens up with this date on the road against one of a select few genuine ACC title contenders.

Carson Beck steps into the quarterback for Miami after his bombshell transfer away from Georgia, where he was a two-year starter on a pair of productive offenses, and while he’s dealing behind a solid offensive line, this unit also has to break in a new group of wide receivers after losing a ton of production at the position.

Notre Dame’s offense also made a change at quarterback after Riley Leonard turned pro, and while CJ Carr was a high-value recruit, he’s low on experience as a starter.

Luckily, he’s surrounded by elite talent just about everywhere, principally in a backfield that returns Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price, a dynamic duo of tailbacks that combined for 1,871 yards a year ago and should be in top form behind another solid line.

What do the analytics suggest will happen as the Fighting Irish and Hurricanes meet on the field in this season opener?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Notre Dame and Miami compare in this Week 1 college football game.

Notre Dame vs. Miami score prediction

Coming into the 2025 debut, the models are siding more with the visiting team over the Hurricanes, but by a very slim margin.

SP+ predicts that Notre Dame will defeat Miami by a projected score of 30 to 29 and will win the game by an expected margin of just 1 point.

The model is cutting it close, giving the Irish a narrow 52 percent chance of outright victory, while the Hurricanes have a fighting chance at 48 percent.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good was it last season? A year ago, the SP+ model went 409-389-9 overall against the spread with a 50.9 win percentage.

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How to bet Notre Dame vs. Miami

The sportsbooks are also giving the Golden Domers a slight edge over the Canes.

Notre Dame is a 2.5 point favorite against Miami, according to the latest game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 51.5 points for the matchup.

And it set the moneyline odds for Notre Dame at -137 and for Miami at +114 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Miami +2.5
• Notre Dame to win -137
• Bet over 51.5 points

If you do, you’ll be in the company of a minority of bets heading into this matchup.

A slight majority of bettors expect the Fighting Irish to take care of business against the Hurricanes, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Notre Dame is getting 63 percent of bets to win the game by at least a field goal and cover the narrow point spread against its ACC counterpart.

The other 37 percent of wagers project Miami will either pull off the upset and defeat the Fighting Irish outright, or will lose the game by fewer than three points.

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Computer prediction

Most other analytical football models also expect the Irish to handle the Hurricanes, albeit also in a very close game.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

That model likes the Irish to win one for the Gipper, but they’ll have to sweat it out.

Notre Dame is the projected winner over Miami, coming out ahead in a slight majority 54.9 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the game.

That leaves the Hurricanes as the presumptive winner in the remaining 45.1 percent of sims.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

Notre Dame is projected to be just 1.1 points better than Miami on the same field in both teams’ current form, according to the model’s forecast.

How accurate has the College Football Power Index computer prediction model been in recent memory? Last season, it was one of a select few to surpass the 70 percent success threshold.

Predicting a total of 799 college football games a year ago, the Power Index computers were correct for 70.964 percent of their final picks, ranking eighth nationally out of 55 other football models.

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College Football HQ prediction

Between the two new quarterbacks making their debut for their respective teams, it would appear that Beck has the advantage, given his experience against big-time opponents, even coming off that UCL surgery this offseason.

His production dipped a year ago at Georgia, and his numbers may not improve too much from that outing given how much Miami has to replace at wide receiver, but he should have able protection and a solid ground game to lean on as he finds his way here.

But he’ll be under some good pressure from a Notre Dame front seven that has the tacklers to bring the heat and jostle him from the pocket more often than he would prefer.

And while the Irish have a standout rushing attack of their own, it’s running into a team strength for Miami, its own very able front seven alignment that will test Love and Price more so than most other teams will this year.

Having the quarterback with more experience tends to be the deciding factor here. Notre Dame will run the ball and defend well, but not having the clear advantage when it comes to moving the ball vertically, and playing on the road, might be too much.

College Football HQ picks: Miami beats Notre Dame in an upset.

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How to watch Notre Dame vs. Miami

When: Sun., Aug. 31
Where: Miami

Time: 7:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: ABC network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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