Notre Dame vs. Navy prediction: Who wins, and why?

A great old college football rivalry gets renewed this weekend as Notre Dame is back home against Navy with both teams eyeing consideration from the playoff selection committee.

Admittedly, the Fighting Irish are in a more commanding position regarding the College Football Playoff, but can ill afford to make any mistakes the rest of the way with those two earlier losses.

Navy is at just one loss, but an ugly one to North Texas that damaged its reputation, and it still sits outside the national rankings despite playing in the American, which is the favorite Group of Five conference to earn a playoff bid this season.

Notre Dame vs. Navy: What to watch for

Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Navy Midshipmen football game prediction 2025 — Notre Dame vs. Navy prediction 2025 | Rafael Suanes-Imagn Images

1. On the ground

Navy leads the nation in rushing offense, primarily through the triple-option, while Notre Dame enters with one of the country’s best run defenses, ranked among the top-dozen.

This matchup will be decided by the ability of Notre Dame’s front seven, anchored by standout linebackers and defensive linemen, to slow Navy’s ground game and force the Midshipmen out of their comfort zone.

2. Turnover Margin

Notre Dame is among the national leaders in turnovers forced, with 18 takeaways on the season.

Navy’s methodical offense hinges on protecting the ball, but turnovers were costly in last season's blowout loss to Notre Dame where the Irish recovered five Navy fumbles.

The team that wins the turnover battle will likely dictate both field position and momentum.

3. Contrasting QB play

Notre Dame's CJ Carr comes in with over 2,000 passing yards, 16 touchdowns, and only four interceptions, providing a balanced threat alongside running back Jeremiyah Love.

Navy’s Blake Horvath operates almost exclusively in the ground game, with 13 rushing touchdowns and fewer than 110 pass attempts all season.

Efficient execution by both quarterbacks, especially in red zone opportunities, will be critical for turning drives into points.

What the bookies think

The bettors are predictably giving the Fighting Irish an edge. Quite a big one, in fact.

Notre Dame is a 27.5 point favorite against Navy, according to the most recent betting lines posted by FanDuel Sportsbook for the game.

FanDuel lists the total at 55.5 points for the matchup, and set the moneyline odds for Notre Dame at -7000 and for Navy at +2000 to win outright.

Notre Dame vs. Navy prediction: Who wins?

Notre Dame has a battery of proven skill threats who should move the ball with some ease against the Navy defense sitting behind the 12th ranked scoring attack in the country.

Explosive plays on the Irish side should easily counter the traditional Navy approach of churning out yards on the ground, although they should one or two big ones that make it close early on.

College Football HQ picks...

Notre Dame wins 40-17
Covers the spread
And hits the over

More: Notre Dame vs. Navy score prediction by expert model

How to watch Notre Dame vs. Navy

When: Sat., Nov. 8
Time: 7:30 p.m. Eastern
Where: NBC network

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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