Notre Dame vs. Navy score prediction by expert football model

An old college football rivalry kicks off this weekend, as Notre Dame looks to extend its win streak against Navy in this Week 11 matchup on Saturday.

Notre Dame has recovered from its 0-2 start to win six-straight games and debuted in the No. 10 position in the first College Football Playoff rankings, while Navy dropped its first game of the season following a loss against North Texas in the American Conference last week.

What do the analytics predict as the Midshipmen travel to the Fighting Irish this weekend?

For that, we turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Notre Dame and Navy compare in this Week 11 college football game, and use it to lock in our own projection.

Notre Dame vs. Navy score prediction

Expectedly, the model is siding with the Golden Domers to continue its win streak.

SP+ predicts that Notre Dame will defeat Navy by a projected score of 39 to 21 and will win the game by an expected margin of 17.7 points in the process.

The model gives the Fighting Irish a dominant 87 percent chance of outright victory.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ college football prediction model is 263-253 against the spread with a 55.8 win percentage. Last week, it was 29-23 (55.8%) in its picks against the spread.

Who is favored?

The betting market is leaning heavily towards the Fighting Irish over the Midshipmen.

Notre Dame is a big 26.5 point favorite against Navy, according to the latest game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 55.5 points for the matchup, and set the moneyline odds for Notre Dame at -4500 and for Navy at +1600 to win outright.

What we think will happen

Notre Dame enters the game with momentum and a dominant series edge, while Navy seeks redemption after a rare setback.

Expect the Irish to establish control early with physical runs and improved special teams execution.

Navy’s ball-control offense could chew up clock, but turnovers and inconsistencies on defense will hinder their threat.

In the end, Notre Dame should finish strong and avoid sloppy stretches, securing a solid win at home.

Navy +26.5
Notre Dame to win -4500
Take the over

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams

Follow College Football HQ: Bookmark | Rankings | Picks