Notre Dame vs. Ohio State: 5 ways the Fighting Irish can win the national title

Notre Dame is in position to win its first national championship since 1988, with just Ohio State standing in its way. How can the Fighting Irish get over the jump and win it all?
How can Notre Dame take out Ohio State and win the national championship game?
How can Notre Dame take out Ohio State and win the national championship game? / MICHAEL CLUBB/SOUTH BEND TRIBUNE / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Everything is on the line as college football looks to determine its champion with Notre Dame taking on Ohio State in a historic College Football Playoff National Championship Game.

Notre Dame is looking to win its first title since the 1988 season, and to win the first-ever championship determined by a 12-team College Football Playoff field.

It’s not a place many observers thought the Fighting Irish would be in a couple months ago, after a surprise loss to MAC underdog Northern Illinois at home back in September.

But they rebounded, winning 13 straight games to this point behind one of college football’s most productive defenses and one of the nation’s best rushing attacks.

Notre Dame trails Ohio State, 2-6, in the series between these teams and hasn’t defeated the Buckeyes in 90 years, dropping the last six straight.

That includes a home-and-home against OSU over the last two seasons, dropping a 21-10 decision in Columbus in 2022 and a closer 17-14 result at home last fall.

Now, the Irish have a chance to not just avenge those losses, but to finish the season as kings of college football and reinstate the program at the forefront of the sport.

How can they do it? Here’s what Notre Dame has to do in order to get past Ohio State and win the national championship.

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1. Run the dang ball

Just to get the obvious point out of the way, it’s no secret that Notre Dame’s offensive success has hinged on its ability to churn out yards on the ground.

And that’s something the Irish backs have proven quite good at this year.

Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price have combined for nearly 2,000 total yards rushing, are averaging nearly 6 yards per carry, fourth in FBS, and the Irish backs have totaled 44 rushing touchdowns, the third most of any team in college football.

And that includes some expert production from quarterback Riley Leonard, who has 866 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns with his legs while averaging 5.2 yards per touch on the ground, the kind of numbers a lot of tailbacks wouldn’t mind having.

Only five FBS quarterbacks have more rushing yards than Leonard, who has also forced 41 missed tackles and gained over 500 yards after contact, a legitimate total-package rushing threat.

But that production may not tell the whole story, especially as of late.

Love is dealing with a nagging knee injury that he re-aggravated in the quarterfinal round, and finished with just 46 yards in the semifinal game while wearing a large brace.

Moreover, if you take Love’s 98-yard touchdown against Indiana out of the average, the Irish are posting just 3.3 yards per carry in the postseason, according to Pro Football Focus measurements.

And that figure includes a meager 0.8 yards per attempt after making contact with defenders.

Now they go against an Ohio State run defense that PFF grades as the best-performing in the country, ranking third nationally in production, second in surrendering 2.68 yards per touch, and is 1 of 6 teams to allow under 100 yards per game.

The game could go sideways if the Irish can’t get their usual momentum on the ground early on, especially considering Leonard isn’t nearly as dangerous when moving the ball vertically.

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2. Protect the quarterback

Head coach Marcus Freeman said he wanted to build the program with the offensive line as its foundation, and so far the unit has lived up to the hype.

The line plays its best when blocking for the run and excels at pushing defenders off the line and opening rushing lanes, but has dealt with more issues when protecting for the pass.

That could become an issue against an Ohio State front seven that is among the best in the country, and as Irish left tackle Anthonie Knapp won’t be in the game after leaving the semifinal round with an injury.

Ohio State is third in the country with a nearly 41 percent pressure rate against opposing quarterbacks and is No. 1 in FBS with an 11.06 percent sack rate as a result.

Leonard commands a vertical attack that ranks just 102nd nationally in total output, and now lines up in the face of a superb OSU edge rush led by Jack Sawyer and J.T. Tuimoloau.

The unit averages more than 7 negative plays created per game and is responsible for 106 tackles for loss, some of the best numbers in FBS. Notre Dame allows almost 5 stops behind the line per game.

It’s imperative that Leonard work at getting the ball out quickly and get his receivers in space, particularly on the edges, where Ohio State’s pass defense is a relative weakness.

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3. Get more aggressive downfield

Ohio State boasts some of college football’s most dangerous skill weapons, working in tandem with a quarterback who has found his groove at the most important time.

But the Irish should be well-equipped to contend with the Buckeyes’ targets, coming into the game with the nation’s top-ranked pass efficiency defense.

Notre Dame allows just 50.7 percent completion to opposing passers, the best mark in the country.

But it tends to play more man coverage, a strategy that could give an advantage to the Buckeyes’ receivers, who struggled more against zone against Texas in the semifinal.

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4. Stop the run

Notre Dame has been respectable when defending against the run this season, ranking 41st among 134 FBS teams against opposing backs, allowing 133 yards per game.

But that total was skewed by two games against Army and Navy, the run-heavy service academies who put together had 429 rushing yards against the Irish, but also lost by 72 combined points in those matchups.

In its other games, Notre Dame allowed just 120 yards each time out from opponents, a figure that would improve its standing into the top 30 nationally.

But after allowing under 65 rushing yards each in games against Indiana and Georgia, the Irish defense struggled to contain Penn State’s rushers in the semifinal.

They gave up 141 yards in the first half and finished by surrendering 204 total yards and allowing almost 5 yards per carry on the ground in the game.

Ohio State isn’t a run-first offense and its backs present a different kind of challenge than Penn State’s, peeling off more explosive runs in space than consistently punishing tacklers at the point of attack.

Notre Dame played some of its closest games when its opponents were successful at running the football, and while the Buckeyes are average in terms of total production, they post nearly 5 yards per carry and have rushed for 32 touchdowns, both top 30 in the country.

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5. Win on third down

As always, how well a team fares running the ball and stopping the run comes down to how they play on the most important down.

And it appears the Irish have an advantage over the Buckeyes in that exact situation.

Working against a Penn State team that was solid on both lines, Notre Dame converted 11 of 17 chances on offense and held the Lions to just 3 of 11 conversions on the other side.

That’s a good sign for the Fighting Irish to keep things close against an aggressive Buckeye attack.

That offense was good for just 3 of 10 opportunities against Texas in the semifinal and was just about average in this phase all season, converting 41 percent of chances.

Ohio State’s offense stalled for long stretches of that game, partly from self-inflicted mistakes and penalties, but also in the face of a quality defense that put up its best effort on third down.

Notre Dame is fifth nationally in third down defense, allowing opponents to convert just under 30 percent of the time despite facing 205 opportunities from opponents, the seventh-most.

That number includes the Irish allowing opponents to convert just 19 times on 42 third down chances when needing three or fewer yards.

Getting the Buckeyes’ offense off the field on third down and forcing punts will be crucial for Notre Dame to prevent its elite opponent gaining early offensive momentum.

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Who is favored?

Ohio State is an 8.5 point favorite against Notre Dame, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook for the matchup.

FanDuel lists the total at 46.5 points for the game.

And it set the moneyline odds for Ohio State at -375 and for Notre Dame at +290 to win outright.

Ohio State: -8.5 (-106)
Notre Dame: +8.5 (-114)

Over 46.5 points: -106
Under 46.5 points: -114

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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James Parks
JAMES PARKS

James Parks is the founder and publisher of College Football HQ. He previously covered football for 247Sports and CBS Interactive. College Football HQ joined the Sports Illustrated Fannation Network in 2022.