Notre Dame vs. Pittsburgh score prediction by expert football model

Notre Dame seems in line for a place in the College Football Playoff this week, sitting inside the top-ten of the second CFP rankings, but with basically no margin for error with two losses already.

Pittsburgh could provide the Fighting Irish with quite a challenge to their playoff ambitions, and could make waves in a topsy-turvy ACC, sitting in a four-way tie for first place at 5-1 in conference play.

What do the analytics predict will happen as the Fighting Irish take on the Panthers this weekend?

For that, we turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Notre Dame and Pittsburgh compare in this Week 12 football game, and use it to lock in our own projection.

Notre Dame vs. Pittsburgh score prediction

As expected, the model is siding with the visiting team in this matchup, but by a margin that could make Fighting Irish fans sweat a little bit.

SP+ predicts that Notre Dame will defeat Pittsburgh by a projected score of 32 to 24 and will win the game by an expected margin of 7.2 points in the process.

The model projects the Fighting Irish have a 67 percent chance of outright victory.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ college football prediction model is 286-281 against the spread with a 50.4 win percentage. Last week, it was 23-28 (45.1%) in its picks against the spread.

Who is favored?

The betting markets have more confidence in the Fighting Irish than the model.

Notre Dame is a 12.5 point favorite against Pittsburgh, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 53.5 points for the matchup, and set the moneyline odds for Notre Dame at -490 and for Pittsburgh at +380 to win outright.

What we think will happen

Notre Dame enters this matchup with plenty of confidence, fueled by a seven-game winning streak, ideal playoff positioning, and a balanced attack that continues to evolve.

The Irish have found stability behind a poised quarterback and a ground game that controls tempo, while their defense has tightened against the run and thrived in the red zone.

Pittsburgh has quietly built some momentum of its own, coming off a bye week rested and prepared, with a defense that’s created key takeaways and an offense beginning to find consistency behind a young but fearless quarterback.

Expect a physical, methodical game, but Notre Dame’s depth and offensive versatility should ultimately prove decisive on the road.

Pittsburgh +12.5
Notre Dame -490
Take the over

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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