Notre Dame vs. USC score prediction by expert football model

What the analytics predict for Notre Dame vs. USC by an expert football model that projects scores and picks winners.

Notre Dame vs. USC score prediction 2024 / Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

The greatest intersectional rivalry in sports returns from the Coliseum and is loaded with postseason implications as Notre Dame looks to stay in the picture against upset-minded USC. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the game from an expert analytical football model that projects scores and picks winners.

Notre Dame is the No. 5 team in the College Football Playoff rankings and the projected No. 7 seed in the updated bracket, and would host a first-round game against SMU if the playoff started today.

But for now, the Irish are more concerned with avoiding what would be a costly second loss, one that, combined with other potential upsets around the country, could conspire against their College Football Playoff ambitions with the selection committee keeping a close eye.

Notre Dame has played inspired football since the Northern Illinois loss, ranking No. 1 nationally with a plus-27.4 point differential this season and has won 9 straight games, including two statement routs against undefeated service academies Navy and Army.

Plus, the Irish boast a season-opening victory against a ranked Texas A&M team that has a chance to play its way into the SEC Championship Game this week.

Standing in their way is the Trojans.

USC would prefer to forget this entire season, but did become bowl eligible with a win over UCLA last week, moving to 6-5 and in position to play spoiler against its big rival and end the regular season on a high note.

What do the analytics suggest will happen as the Trojans welcome the Fighting Irish this weekend?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how USC and Notre Dame compare in this Week 14 college football rivalry game.

Notre Dame vs. USC score prediction

As expected, the models favor the Fighting Irish over the Trojans in this matchup, and by a double-digit margin.

SP+ predicts that Notre Dame will defeat USC by a projected score of 32 to 21 and win the game by an expected margin of 10.5 points.

The model gives the Irish a 74 percent chance of outright victory against the Men of Troy this week.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 349-321-8 against the spread with a 52.1 win percentage after going 34-28 (54.8%) last weekend.

Notre Dame vs. USC odds, how to pick the game

Notre Dame is a 7.5 point favorite against USC, according to the updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook this week.

FanDuel set the total at 51.5 points for the game (Over -110, Under -110).

And it lists the moneyline odds for Notre Dame at -275 and for USC at +220 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Notre Dame -7.5
• Irish to win -275
• Bet over 51.5 points

A big majority of bettors expect the Fighting Irish will cover the spread against the Trojans, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Notre Dame is getting 74 percent of bets to win the game and cover the line.

The other 26 percent of wagers project USC will either win outright in an upset, or keep the final margin to a touchdown or under in a loss.

Computer prediction

Most other analytical football models expect the Fighting Irish to take care of the Trojans.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Notre Dame is a big road favorite, coming out on top in 70.9 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves USC as the presumptive winner in the remaining 29.1 percent of sims.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

Notre Dame is projected to be 7.9 points better than USC on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

More ... Notre Dame vs. USC prediction: What the analytics say

College Football Playoff rankings for Week 14

1. Oregon
2. Ohio State
3. Texas
4. Penn State
5. Notre Dame
6. Miami
7. Georgia
8. Tennessee
9. SMU
10. Indiana
11. Boise State
12. Clemson
13. Alabama
14. Ole Miss
15. South Carolina
16. Arizona State
17. Tulane
18. Iowa State
19. BYU
20. Texas A&M
21. Missouri
22. UNLV
23. Illinois
24. Kansas State
25. Colorado

What the College Football Playoff looks like today

Playoff seeding is not necessarily the same as the CFP top 25 rankings position, given some teams will be given higher seeds as conference champions

First-Round Byes

No. 1 Oregon
Projected Big Ten champion

No. 2 Texas
Projected SEC champion

No. 3 Miami
Projected ACC champion

No. 4 Boise State
Projected Mountain West champion

First-Round Games

No. 12 Arizona State at
No. 5 Ohio State
Winner plays No. 4 Boise State

No. 9 Tennessee at
No. 8 Georgia
Winner plays No. 1 Oregon

No. 11 Indiana at
No. 6 Penn State
Winner plays No. 3 Miami

No. 10 SMU at
No. 7 Notre Dame
Winner plays No. 2 Texas

First team out: Clemson

Second team out: Alabama

How to watch Notre Dame vs. USC

When: Sat., Nov. 30
Where: Los Angeles, Calif.

Time: 3:30 p.m. ET | 12:30 p.m. PT
TV: CBS network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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