Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Michigan Wolverines prediction: Who wins, and why?

It all comes down to this. Ohio State. Michigan. College football’s greatest rivalry laden with playoff and national championship implications. Just as it should be.

Reigning national champion Ohio State is perfect through 11 games and playing historically efficient offense and dominating defense, but has dropped four straight against its arch-nemesis.

Michigan is currently out of the College Football Playoff bracket, but would make a brilliant case that it belonged inside the top-dozen by knocking off the best team in the country.

Ohio State vs. Michigan: What to watch

Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Michigan Wolverines football game prediction 2025 — Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

1. Stopping Michigan's rush and Underwood

Ohio State comes in playing college football’s top-ranked defense, allowing just over a touchdown and under 207 yards per game. Its top priority will be to neutralize a productive Michigan ground game averaging 224 yards each time out.

Freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood has seen his passing output increase in recent weeks, so the Buckeyes challenging a good Michigan offensive line to pressure him while handling read-options will be critical to keep the Wolverines from building long drives.

Michigan will be without injured star back Justice Haynes, giving Ohio State’s defensive front a chance to dictate if they can win early on in the trenches.

2. Explosive plays and passing attack

Ohio State’s offense can break a game open with a battery of deep-field passes from uber-efficient quarterback Julian Sayin dealing to some of college football’s best receivers.

Sayin is putting up around 80 percent completion numbers on a regular basis and has paired very well with the likes of Jeremiah Smith and other downfield weapons who have been peeling off significant gains against overmatched defenses all year.

If Michigan’s defensive backs fail to limit separation or yards after the catch, the Buckeyes can very swiftly turn scoring opportunities into touchdowns and flip momentum entirely in their favor.

Matchups in the secondary and who is able to physically assert themselves in the passing lanes will go a long way in determining who controls the game’s momentum.

3. Fast starts and rivalry intangibles

Ohio State enters 11-0 and No. 1 but hasn't won in Ann Arbor since 2019, with coach Ryan Day just 1-4 overall against Michigan despite a 52-1 Big Ten mark otherwise.

The Buckeyes need to dictate tempo offensively and avoid a slow start or second-half tightness that doomed them recently, especially with playoff seeding and Big Ten title implications on the line.

Michigan thrives on hanging around before pressuring favorites late, so Ohio State protecting the ball and leveraging special teams edges like penalties could prove important in snapping the four-game skid.

Who is favored?

Bettors really like the Buckeyes in this rematch, by more than double digits.

Ohio State is a 10.5 point favorite against Michigan, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 43.5 points for the matchup, and set the moneyline odds for Ohio State at -390 and for Michigan at +310 to win outright.

Ohio State vs. Michigan prediction: Who wins?

Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Michigan Wolverines The Game 2025 football prediction — Joseph Maiorana-Imagn Images

“Throwing out the record books” is an overused cliche, but this is one of the games where it’s dogma.

Take last season, when the Buckeyes, favored by nearly three touchdowns, had few answers against a physical, determined Michigan team, the last one to beat Ohio State on any field.

It didn’t hurt OSU’s shot at the national title, and neither would a loss here necessarily, but a lot more than that is on the line for the school’s honor and for Ryan Day’s legacy.

It’s possible the Buckeyes take out all their hairpins and go all out by stretching the field with tempo, but Michigan still has the home field edge, plays tough on both lines, and can slow the game considerably by running the ball with authority.

Still, Matt Patricia’s defense feels like a different animal than even last year’s unit, the absence of Justice Haynes could prove a very decisive factor, and the Wolverines have a lot of freshmen playing key positions on both sides of the ball.

College Football HQ picks...

Ohio State wins 23-19
Doesn’t cover the spread
And hits the under

More: Ohio State vs. Michigan score prediction by expert model

How to watch The Game 2025

When: Sat., Nov. 29
Where: Michigan

Time: 12 p.m. Eastern
TV: Fox network

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams

Follow College Football HQ: Bookmark | Rankings | Picks