Ohio State vs. Michigan score prediction by expert football model

The most intense rivalry in college football is here, as The Game 2025 kicks off from the Big House, pitting top-ranked Ohio State against rival Michigan in a battle with major playoff implications.

Ohio State is playing with a projected No. 1 overall seed in the College Football Playoff on the line, while Michigan wants to win a fifth-straight in this series and make a playoff case for itself.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the SP+ computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Ohio State vs. Michigan score prediction

The model predictably likes the Buckeyes in this rematch, potentially by two touchdowns on the road.

SP+ predicts that Ohio State will defeat Michigan by a projected score of 31 to 17 and will win the game by an expected margin of 14.6 points in the process.

The model gives the Buckeyes a solid 82 percent chance against the Wolverines outright.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ college football prediction model is 349-336 against the spread with a 50.9 win percentage. Last week, it was 29-31 (48.3%) in its picks against the spread.

What the bookies think

Betting markets project a turnaround in The Game series this year, with the Buckeyes taking back the Gold Pants, and by a projected double digit margin.

Ohio State is a 10.5 point favorite against Michigan, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 43.5 points for the matchup, and set the moneyline odds for Ohio State at -390 and for Michigan at +310 to win outright.

What we think will happen

All the business about throwing out the record books is actually true for this game. Just consider what happened last year, as Michigan knocked off an Ohio State team that was favored by nearly three touchdowns on the road.

And that was against an Ohio State defense that was one of the best ever. This version of that unit might even be better when looking over the raw numbers, although Michigan’s offense has found some consistent success in recent weeks.

College Football HQ predicts: Ohio State wins, but Michigan covers.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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