Ohio State vs. Ball State Score Prediction by Expert Football Model

Very few college football teams have a projected 100 percent chance to win their games across the Week 1 schedule, but Ohio State is one of them.

That’s according to the SP+ college football prediction model, which forecasts that the preseason No. 1 ranked Buckeyes will have no problem discarding their first opponent.

Good luck to Ball State, the plucky MAC upstart that ventures into Columbus with what is probably a nice payday, but is expected to be one of the widest margins in college football when its first full weekend of action is all said and done.

Ohio State vs. Ball State Score Prediction

This could be one of the biggest blowouts of the first full Saturday of action.

SP+ predicts that Ohio State will defeat Ball State by a projected score of 60 to 0 and will win the game by an expected margin of 60.4 points in the process.

The model gives the Buckeyes a perfect 100 percent chance of outright victory heading into its far more consequential Week 2 matchup at No. 5 Texas.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ college football prediction model is 6-2 in its picks against the spread with a solid 75.0 win percentage.

Who the Experts Are Taking

Ohio State boasts one of the biggest favorable point spreads in the country in Week 1, listed as a 50.5 point favorite, according to the lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel doesn’t list moneyline odds, as might be expected given the Buckeyes’ obvious talent superiority, but lists the total at 56.5 points.

What We Think Will Happen

This is standard fare as far as Week 1 cupcakes go for national title favorites. Twice in this century have the Buckeyes been 50-point favorites and covered, against Florida A&M in 2013 and Maryland in 2019, and twice have they not covered, against Rutgers in 2019 and Akron in 2024.

Historically, backups playing almost the entire second half and a relaxed fourth quarter offensive approach make covering a 50-point cushion difficult for any major team, but the talent gap in this should account for at least a 40 point differential.

College Football HQ says: Ohio State beats Ball State, but doesn’t cover.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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