Ohio State vs. Oregon football prediction: What the analytics say

Ohio State and Oregon reunite in the College Football Playoff quarterfinal round to square off in the Rose Bowl Game. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the matchup from an analytical football model that simulates games.

Ohio State lost one of its two games against these Ducks, by a single point back in October, but is looking ahead to this rematch with a chance to move closer to a national championship.

Oregon is college football’s last undefeated team, and champions of the Big Ten conference it joined this season, working behind one of the sport’s most efficient offensive attacks.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Ohio State vs. Oregon predictions

This time around, the computers are siding with the Buckeyes to get some revenge against the Ducks.

Ohio State is the favorite to win this game according to the index, albeit by a narrow margin, projected to come out ahead in the majority 53.6 percent of the computer’s simulations.

That leaves Oregon as the presumptive winner in the Rose Bowl in the remaining 46.4 percent of the game’s simulations.

Ohio State comes out on top in 10,720 of the index’s 20,000 calculations for the game, while Oregon edged out the Buckeyes in the other 9,280 predictions.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game? Expect a very close one.

Ohio State is projected to be just 1.3 points better than Oregon on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that wouldn’t be enough for the Buckeyes to cover the spread against the Ducks.

That’s because Ohio State is a 2.5 point favorite against Oregon, according to the most recent lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook for the game.

FanDuel lists the total at 55.5 points (Over -105, Under -115).

And it set the moneyline odds for Ohio State at -132 and for Oregon at +110 to win outright.

What the bettors say

A plurality of bettors expect the Ducks will handle the Buckeyes and advance to the semifinal round, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Oregon is getting 62 percent of bets to either win the game outright in an upset, or lose the game by 1 or 2 points.

The other 38 percent of wagers project Ohio State will be at least a field goal better than the Ducks and cover the narrow point spread.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

How to watch the 2024 Rose Bowl Game

When: Wed., Jan. 1
Where: Pasadena, Calif.

Time: 5 p.m. Eastern
TV: ESPN network

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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