Ohio State vs. Texas Score Prediction by Expert Football Model

Here is the latest prediction for the game from an expert football model that projects scores and picks winners.

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A rematch of last season’s opener finds Ohio State and Texas on the same field again, with the Buckeyes hoping to retain their No. 1 ranking and the Longhorns looking for revenge and a shot at the top spot in the poll themselves.

Arch Manning returns as a much more experienced and polished quarterback after improving over the second half of last season, while Jeremiah Smith once again steps in as college football’s most physically imposing wide receiver in this critical road test.

What do the experts think of the matchup? For that, let’s turn to the SP+ college football model to project the game, and use it to lock in our own prediction.

Ohio State vs. Texas Score Prediction: The Model Likes an Upset

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As has happened in their last two meetings, the model is favoring the Buckeyes again.

SP+ predicts that Ohio State will defeat Texas by a projected score of 27 to 25 and will win the game by an expected margin of 2.0 points in the process.

The model gives the Buckeyes a narrow 55 percent chance of outright victory.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ college football prediction model is 28-22-1 in its picks against the spread with a 55.9 win percentage.

What We Think Will Happen: Do the Longhorns Finally Get Revenge?

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Jeremiah Smith has proven able to skirt around just about any secondary, but the Longhorns actually did a decent job of preventing him from getting too open the last time out, and if anything, this group of defensive backs is even better for Texas.

Manning is a better overall player than he was in his starting debut against this Buckeyes defense, but now that unit is without eight of the elite tacklers that befuddled him in Columbus the last time out.

It’s still a formidable group up front, and it will rattle Manning here and there behind a reworked Texas offensive line, but once he settles in, the Longhorns’ quarterback has too much of a rebuilt backfield and too many blue-chip outlets who can spread the field.

Line: Texas -1.5, 49.5

What happens? Texas beats Ohio State, and covers the spread.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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