Oklahoma vs. Missouri score prediction by expert football model

A couple of old Big 12 rivals meet up this weekend now as members of the SEC as No. 8 Oklahoma welcomes No. 22 Missouri in college football’s Week 13 action on Saturday.

Oklahoma is squarely inside the College Football Playoff bubble on the back of two-straight road wins against Tennessee and Alabama, but with two other losses has no margin for error as the selectors prepare to make their final decisions soon.

Missouri looks out of the bracket with its three losses and no wins against ranked opponents, but has a chance to play spoiler against the insurgent Sooners in this game.

Oklahoma vs. Missouri score prediction

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how the Sooners and Tigers compare in this Week 13 college football game.

As expected, the model is siding with the streaking Sooners over their SEC counterpart.

SP+ predicts that Oklahoma will defeat Missouri outright by a projected score of 27 to 22 and will win the game by an expected margin of 5.4 points in the process.

The model gives OU a slight 63 percent chance of victory over the Tigers in the matchup.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ college football prediction model is 320-305 against the spread with a 51.2 win percentage.

Last week, it was 34-24 (58.6%) in its picks against the spread, its second-best showing of the 2025 season.

Who is favored?

The betting markets like the Sooners by roughly a touchdown over the Tigers.

Oklahoma is a 6.5 point favorite against Missouri, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook entering this weekend.

FanDuel lists the total at 42.5 points for the matchup, and set the moneyline odds for Oklahoma at -250 and for Missouri at +205 to win outright.

What we think will happen

Two of college football’s more reliable defenses take the field in this matchup, but the Sooners just might have the decisive edge against a Missouri quarterback in Matt Zollers who lacks critical experience and had little time to gain a footing in this offense.

Ahmad Hardy is the nation’s single-most productive rusher, but he’s working against an Oklahoma run-stop combination up front that is the best he will face all season.

Missouri may not have a proven method of moving the football on Oklahoma’s defense, but the Sooners’ slower-moving offense could keep this within a touchdown.

We’re siding with the SP+ wisdom in this matchup, expecting Oklahoma to stay in the playoff picture this week, but in a result that will be closer than the home fans prefer.

Missouri +6.5
Oklahoma to win -250
Bet under 42.5 points

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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