ESPN computer predicts Ole Miss vs. Arkansas game winner

Expert prediction for Ole Miss vs. Arkansas by a model that simulates games and picks winners.

Ole Miss vs. Arkansas game prediction 2025 | Jordan Prather-Imagn Images

Ole Miss and Arkansas are set to meet in college football’s Week 3 action on Saturday night in the SEC opener for the Razorbacks. Let’s take a look at the latest prediction for the game from a model that simulates games and picks winners.

Ole Miss became the first SEC team to record a win in a conference game after knocking off Kentucky on the road last weekend, and getting good returns on both sides of the ball after overseeing so much turnover on this roster over the offseason.

Austin Simmons has had his rookie moments, throwing 4 interceptions against 3 touchdowns, but has completed 60 percent of his passes while covering nearly 600 yards in two games.

Kewan Lacy is another budding star in the Rebels’ offense, as the transfer tailback has amassed 246 yards on the ground in 2 games while scoring 4 touchdowns.

Arkansas has pounded two overmatched opponents by a combined 108-21, earning a confident 2-0 mark in games against Alabama A&M and Arkansas State, but the competition level gets turned up in the SEC opener on the road.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

--

Ole Miss vs. Arkansas prediction

As expected, the models are siding strongly with the Rebels to improve to 2-0 in SEC play against the visiting Razorbacks this weekend.

Ole Miss has emerged as the expected winner in the majority 73.7 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the game.

That leaves Arkansas as the presumptive winner in the remaining 26.3 percent of sims.

In total, the Rebels are expected to come out on top in 14,740 of the model’s projections of the matchup, while Arkansas edged out Ole Miss in the other 5,260 predictions.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory between these SEC rivals? Expect this one to come down to a mere touchdown on the scoreboard.

Ole Miss is projected to be just 6.7 points better than Arkansas on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that wouldn’t be enough for the Rebels to cover the spread in this one.

That’s because Ole Miss is a 7.5 point favorite against Arkansas, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook this week.

FanDuel lists the total at 61.5 points for the matchup.

And it set the moneyline odds for Ole Miss at -260 and for Arkansas at +210 to win outright.

--

Where the money is going

A good majority of bettors are expecting the Razorbacks to give the Rebels something of a challenge on the road, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Arkansas is getting 64 percent of bets to either upset the Rebels outright, or to keep the game within a touchdown or less in a defeat.

The other 36 percent of wagers project Ole Miss will defeat the Razorbacks by more than a touchdown and cover the point spread to move to 2-0 in SEC play.

--

Ole Miss vs. Arkansas future projections

Securing that first win in SEC play has fared well for the Rebels, who are climbing the future conference projections, according to the index model.

Ole Miss is now firmly in third-place among SEC teams with a 59.8 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff.

And it’s third in the conference with a 16.4 percent chance to win the SEC Championship.

The computer projects Ole Miss will win 9.8 games this season.

Arkansas has a mere 1.3 percent shot to win the SEC crown this year, ranking ninth in the conference, notably tied with LSU.

The model suggests the Razorbacks will win 6.7 games in 2025.

--

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

--

How good is the prediction model?

How accurate was the College Football Power Index computer prediction model last Saturday?

Projecting the games a week ago, the Power Index models correctly predicted 73.5 percent of all games and hit 48.4 percent against the spread.

Predicting a total of 799 college football games a year ago, the Power Index computers were correct for 70.964 percent of their final picks, ranking eighth nationally out of 55 other football models.

Over the last decade, the Football Power Index has proven correct on 75 percent of FBS college football game predictions, including in 73 percent of matchups when it favored a team with at least 70 percent likelihood to win.

--

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

-

More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams

Follow College Football HQ: Bookmark | Rankings | Picks

--