Ole Miss vs. Florida score prediction by expert football model

All eyes will be on Lane Kiffin this weekend, not only because his Ole Miss team is on the cusp of a College Football Playoff berth, but also as he remains the favorite to leave that school and join Florida, the team on the other side of the field this week.

Kiffin remains the betting favorite to take over the Gators program next season, unless he decides to stay with the Rebels program he’s helped build into a playoff contender.

It was this Florida team that ended Ole Miss’ postseason chances a year ago in a surprising upset, and the pressure is on Kiffin to avoid a repeat of that disaster.

What do the analytics predict will happen as the Rebels welcome the Gators this weekend?

For that, we turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Ole Miss and Florida compare in this Week 12 football game, and use it to lock in our own projection.

Ole Miss vs. Florida score prediction

As you might expect, the models are siding strongly with the Rebels over the Gators this week.

SP+ predicts that Ole Miss will defeat Florida by a projected score of 35 to 17 and will win the game by an expected margin of 17.3 points in the process.

The model gives the Rebels a strong 86 percent chance of outright victory over the Gators.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ college football prediction model is 286-281 against the spread with a 50.4 win percentage. Last week, it was 23-28 (45.1%) in its picks against the spread.

Who is favored?

The bettors also like the Rebels by a wide margin, over two touchdowns so far.

Ole Miss is a 14.5 point favorite against Florida, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 54.5 points for the matchup, and set the moneyline odds for Ole Miss at -590 and for Florida at +440 to win outright.

What we think will happen

Ole Miss enters the weekend brimming with confidence, coming off a statement shutout and showcasing one of the nation’s most dynamic offenses under Lane Kiffin.

Quarterback play has been sharp, the run game explosive, and the defense increasingly opportunistic—turning takeaways into momentum.

At home in Oxford, the Rebels will look to set the tone with tempo and precision, stretching the field early to keep Florida on its heels.

Florida, meanwhile, continues to search for stability amid a turbulent season marked by inconsistent quarterback play and defensive lapses.

The Gators have talent and speed, but have struggled to finish drives and control pace.

Expect Ole Miss to dictate the rhythm, exploit mismatches through the air, and ride its home-field energy to a convincing win.

Ole Miss -14.5
Rebels to win -590
Take the under

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