Ole Miss vs. South Carolina score prediction by expert football model

SEC football returns to the gridiron on Saturday night as No. 7 ranked, College Football Playoff hopeful Ole Miss returns home in a battle against struggling South Carolina in Week 10 action.

Ole Miss is coming off a triumphant win at ranked Oklahoma to improve to 4-1 in SEC play and is still within striking distance of the conference title race, even with that loss to Georgia a few weeks ago.

South Carolina, meanwhile, has failed to replicate its success from a year ago, sitting at 1-5 in SEC competition and among the worst-performing offenses in the conference.

What do the analytics suggest will happen as the Rebels welcome the Gamecocks this weekend?

For that, we turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Ole Miss and South Carolina compare in this Week 10 college football game, and use it to lock in our own projection.

Ole Miss vs. South Carolina score prediction

As might be expected, the models are siding heavily with the dominant Rebels at home, and in one of the few games expected to be decided by double digits this week.

SP+ predicts that Ole Miss will defeat South Carolina by a projected score of 34 to 17 and will win the game by an expected margin of 16.4 points in the process.

The model gives the Rebels a strong 85 percent chance of outright victory over the Gamecocks.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ college football prediction model is 234-230 against the spread with a 50.4 win percentage. Last week, it was 24-29 (45.3%) in its picks against the spread.

Who is favored?

The betting markets are also leaving strongly on the Rebels in this SEC matchup by nearly two touchdowns.

Ole Miss is a 12.5 point favorite against South Carolina, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook entering this weekend.

FanDuel lists the total at 55.5 points for the matchup, and set the moneyline odds for Ole Miss at -480 and for South Carolina at +370 to win outright.

What we think will happen

South Carolina is just not there offensively this season, ranking last in the SEC with 20.38 points per game and will have trouble containing a Rebel attack that is top 20 nationally in scoring and top-ten in throwing the football.

Ole Miss has had mixed success against dual-threat quarterbacks, and could have issue again preventing LaNorris Sellers from pulling off some impact plays, and the Gamecocks have a decent return game that could give them favorable field position.

But the Rebels front seven should have the final say in getting pressure on Sellers more often than not, as South Carolina ranks second-worst in the SEC by allowing 28 sacks this season.

Two touchdowns sounds about right.

Ole Miss -12.5
Rebels to win -480
Bet over over 55.5 points

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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