Georgia vs. Ole Miss prediction: Who wins the Sugar Bowl, and why?

Ole Miss very nearly had Georgia’s number the first time they played this season, marching out to a big lead between the hedges before the Bulldogs mounted a comeback that handed the Rebels their only loss to date.

Now, these SEC powerhouses square off in a rematch as the quarterfinal round of the College Football Playoff gets underway in the Sugar Bowl game on New Year’s Day.

Georgia vs. Ole Miss: What to watch

Georgia Bulldogs vs. Ole Miss Rebels football game prediction — Petre Thomas-Imagn Images

1. Defensive Discipline vs. Explosive Plays

Georgia’s defense has built momentum with sharpened perimeter coverage and a bend-but-don’t-break mentality late in the season, aiming to neutralize Ole Miss’ vertical passing game that relies on bigger chunk plays.

The Bulldogs’ secondary and front seven thrive on forcing longer drives, creating third-and-long situations where their pass rush can generate turnovers and stall Rebel momentum.

For Ole Miss, sustaining explosive opportunities on early downs remains crucial to dictate tempo and keep Georgia’s offense sidelined, testing the Rebels’ ability to execute against disciplined coverage.

Defensively, Ole Miss seeks to limit Georgia’s rhythm by containing big gains, but if the Bulldogs force grind-it-out possessions, their depth and physicality could wear down the Rebels’ tacklers as the game wears on.

2. Ground Control and Time of Possession

Georgia’s physical run game powered by a deep backfield and elite offensive line seeks to chew clock and dominate possession, and exhaust Ole Miss’ front seven.

This approach not only helps secure field position, but also sets up play-action efficiency for quarterback Gunner Stockton under pressure.

Ole Miss must counter with gap discipline and timely disruptions to prevent Georgia from staying on schedule, as early success here could open passing lanes for their own attack.

Conversely, the Rebels’ defensive adjustments under Pete Golding emphasize early-down stops to flip the script, but whoever controls the line of scrimmage and possession will likely dictate the game’s flow.

3. Trenches Battle and Front Seven Edge

The interior clash pits Ole Miss’ revamped defensive front — focused on penetration, blitzes, and quarterback harassment — against Georgia’s balanced offensive line and ferocious pass rush, where imposing will up front could swing momentum decisively.

Georgia’s interior dominance has created disruption all season, potentially exposing Ole Miss’ adaptations on prolonged drives.

For the Rebels, efficiency in pass protection and run defense on critical downs will be vital to avoid negative plays that compound into stalled possessions.

A single momentum-shifting sack, forced fumble, or stalled series in the trenches might prove the difference in a physical matchup projected to hinge on few mistakes and relentless pressure.

Ole Miss vs. Georgia prediction: Who wins?

Georgia Bulldogs vs. Ole Miss Rebels prediction — Brett Davis-Imagn Images

Line: Georgia -6.5, 55.5

Defending against the pass is statistically the weakest link in this Georgia defense, allowing more than 205 yards in the air per game on average.

Ole Miss, meanwhile, is among the most productive aerial attacks in college football, ranking third among FBS teams with over 312 yards passing every time out.

Trinidad Chambliss and the Rebels’ perimeter threats will rattle the Bulldogs’ secondary again for three quarters or so, but the Bulldogs have played dramatically better defense, in particular fine-tuning its pass rush, over the second half of the season.

College Football HQ picks...

Georgia wins 34-26
Covers the spread
And hits the over

How to watch the Sugar Bowl

When: Thurs., Jan. 1
Where: New Orleans

Time: 8 p.m. Eastern
TV: ESPN network

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams

Follow College Football HQ: Bookmark | Rankings | Picks