Oregon vs. Iowa football prediction: Where the experts see an edge

An expert prediction for Oregon vs. Iowa by a proven analytical model that simulates games and picks winners.

Oregon vs. Iowa prediction 2025 | Ross Harried-Imagn Images

Big Ten football kicks off on Saturday between two teams that emerged in the first playoff rankings, as No. 9 Oregon goes across the country against newly-ranked No. 20 Iowa.

Iowa emerged in the first College Football Playoff rankings with a 6-2 overall record and going 4-1 in conference play, while Oregon is 7-1 with a loss to still-undefeated Indiana.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Oregon vs. Iowa prediction

The models strongly favor the Ducks to avoid a second loss in Big Ten play this weekend.

Oregon is the big favorite in the matchup, coming out ahead in 70.3 percent of the computer simulations of the game, while Iowa is the presumptive winner in the other 29.7 percent of sims.

How does that translate to an expected margin of victory in the game?

Oregon is projected to be 5.5 points better than Iowa on the same field, according to the 20,000 simulations of the game by the model.

If so, that would not be enough to cover the spread, as Oregon is a 6.5 point favorite against Iowa, according to the latest game lines posted by FanDuel Sportsbook.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

How good is the prediction model?

How accurate was the College Football Power Index computer prediction model last Saturday?

Projecting the games a week ago, the Power Index models correctly predicted 74 percent of all games and hit 47.2 percent against the spread.

Predicting a total of 799 college football games a year ago, the Power Index computers were correct for 70.964 percent of their final picks, ranking eighth nationally out of 55 other football models.

Over the last decade, the Football Power Index has proven correct on 75 percent of FBS college football game predictions, including in 73 percent of matchups when it favored a team with at least 70 percent likelihood to win.