Rece Davis picks Oregon-Penn State winner in Week 5

White Out clash in Happy Valley has Davis picking Penn State over Oregon in Week 5.

College football analyst Rece Davis picked Penn State to win at home against the Oregon Ducks on Saturday. | MICHAEL CLUBB/SOUTH BEND TRIBUNE / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The spotlight of Week 5 in college football falls on Beaver Stadium, where Penn State will host Oregon in one of the sport’s biggest stages: the annual White Out. A sold-out crowd of more than 100,000 is expected to blanket the stadium in white, setting the scene for a primetime showdown between two top-10 programs with College Football Playoff aspirations. The Ducks arrive as defending Big Ten champions, while the Nittany Lions aim to avenge last season’s title game loss and seize a defining moment under head coach James Franklin.

On Thursday’s episode of the College GameDay Podcast, analyst Rece Davis broke down the matchup and delivered his pick. Davis acknowledged the lack of tough opponents both teams have faced through the first month, but he emphasized that Saturday presents the first true test for each side. For Penn State, it also represents a chance to finally move from consistent success to national breakthrough.

“Just because you’re untested doesn’t mean you’re not good,” Davis said. “You can watch both of these teams play and tell that they’re good. This is a generational moment for Penn State and it all starts Saturday.”

Davis Explains Why He Believes In Penn State

Davis highlighted the contrasting paths both teams have taken so far. Oregon has already seen Power Four competition and leaned on sophomore quarterback Dante Moore, while Penn State has resembled “an NFL team playing preseason games” in Davis’ words. Still, he cautioned against confusing a lack of challenges with a lack of talent, noting Penn State’s depth at receiver and improvements on the offensive line.

Central to his prediction was the performance of quarterback Drew Allar and the rushing duo of Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen. “Penn State is going to win this game on Saturday if they lean on the offensive line and then work around that,” Davis said. “Use the young tight end Luke Reynolds, use Khalil Diggins the veteran, get Singleton and Allen going, and then pick the spots with the receivers. We’ll really find out if they’ve significantly upgraded or not on Saturday. I think they have. Kiron Hudson and Trevor Peña are really good, and they needed that.”

Penn State Nittany Lions stars Nicholas Singleton (10) and Kaytron Allen (13) will be central to the Nittany Lions' strategy on offense as one of the nation's best RB duos. | Robert Goddin-Imagn Images

Davis also pointed to the broader stakes. He framed the contest as another benchmark in Franklin’s tenure, which has featured double-digit win seasons but has been defined by struggles against elite opponents. The White Out, he said, gives Penn State the chance to show it belongs among the sport’s very best.

“I’ve got Penn State winning as well,” Davis said. “Oregon will make some explosive plays. I believe in Penn State’s receivers. What I need to see Saturday is can Penn State run the ball, which they did extraordinarily well last year against Oregon. They averaged almost nine yards per carry. They’ll need to do that, and Allar will have to avoid the catastrophic mistake. If they do, Penn State will win. Oregon will prove itself as a contender, but this will be a close game that swings on a play or two.”

White Out Stage Adds To The Significance

Beyond the X’s and O’s, Davis stressed the environment at Beaver Stadium as a deciding factor. The Nittany Lions have leaned on the White Out to spark memorable performances in the past, and Davis believes it will again play a role against an Oregon team still searching for experience in high-pressure road games.

“This is a young Oregon team that doesn’t know what it doesn’t know,” Davis said. “Dan Lanning is going to come in loose, go for it on fourth down, and play free. It will be a fascinating contrast.”

Oregon football head coach Dan Lanning and the Ducks have a terrific opportunity to win again against Penn State, who they beat last year in the College Football Playoff. | Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

For Davis, the game carries implications that stretch beyond one night. “If Penn State is going to traverse the most difficult terrain in sports, from great to elite, this is the first step,” he said. “They’ve been great: double-digit wins, 13 wins last year, two playoff wins, almost a third. But to go from great to elite is what they have to traverse. That is hard.”

The Ducks will face the Nittany Lions at Beaver Stadium on Saturday at 7:30 p.m. ET on NBC.