Rece Davis Picks Winner in Week 1's Only Ranked Matchup: Louisville vs. Ole Miss

Jeff Brohm has built a reputation as one of the best play callers in college football when his team is not supposed to win, and Sunday night in Nashville gives him exactly that kind of stage.

Louisville opens the season as a 24th-ranked underdog against a ninth-ranked Ole Miss team many expect to contend for a Playoff spot again.

As part of his Week 1 predictions from his College GameDay podcast, Rece Davis is picking one program based on its pattern of grinding out close games.

Rece Davis predicts Louisville-Ole Miss Week 1 winner

Louisville’s Isaac Brown runs the ball against Virginia. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Davis is backing Ole Miss over Louisville in the Music City Kickoff at Nissan Stadium, the lone game of opening weekend that features two ranked teams. He set up the matchup by pointing to Louisville's uncertainty at quarterback.

"Jeff Brohm says a lot of positive things about the way Lincoln Kienholz is coming around offensively," Davis said. "Also heard some reports that there have been some shaky moments in some of the scrimmages."

Kienholz transferred in after three seasons at Ohio State, where he never won a starting job and appeared in only seven games in 2025, throwing for 139 yards with one touchdown while adding 66 rushing yards and two scores on the ground. He now walks into a Music City Kickoff as QB1 against a Playoff-tested defense.

Pete Thamel took the other side, picking Louisville as an upset. "I think Isaac Brown is one of the five best running backs in the country, and I think Lincoln Kienholz with his legs can keep Ole Miss's defense off balance just enough," Thamel said. "Jeff Braum is the best underdog-like play caller in the country. He is going to keep them off balance."

Dan Wetzel sided with Davis on Ole Miss, but said his interest in the game centers on Kienholz specifically. "He was close to winning that job over Julian Sayin and fought him right to the end and doesn't get it," Wetzel said. "How good is he now that he's got his chance to be the guy, and is it bumpy or not? What exactly is Ole Miss without Lane Kiffin?"

Trinidad Chambliss leads a Playoff-tested Ole Miss team into a new era

Ole Miss Rebels quarterback Trinidad Chambliss (6) warms up before their Vrbo Fiesta Bowl matchup against the Miami Hurricanes. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Chambliss returns as quarterback after taking over midseason last year, when Pete Golding replaced Kiffin as Ole Miss's head coach. Golding led the Rebels on a Playoff run that included wins over Tulane and Georgia before a loss to Miami in the semifinal. This will be Golding's first regular-season game as a full-time head coach.

Davis closed his argument by pointing to Louisville's recent history in close games. "They've lost 12 games, eight of them by one score," Davis said of Brohm's tenure.

"They've lost some tight games last year in their four losses." He argued the pattern favors Ole Miss finding a way through adversity rather than falling to it. "I think they've got another one-score loss in them," Davis said. "I think Trinidad pulls it out."

Kickoff from Nissan Stadium is set for 7:30 p.m. ET Sunday on ABC.

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