Rece Davis predicts 10-point win in Big 12 conference championship game

The College GameDay host predicts a decisive win in the matchup between BYU-Texas Tech in Arlington.

ESPN College GameDay host Rece Davis predicts Texas Tech will win by 10 points against BYU in the Big 12 conference championship game. | Mateo Rosiles/ Avalanche-Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Rece Davis predicts BYU-Texas Tech Big 12 Championship winner

The Big 12 Championship Game features two 11-1 teams meeting in Arlington, Texas, with a guaranteed spot in the College Football Playoff awaiting the victor.

Texas Tech Red Raiders head coach Joey McGuire and BYU Cougars head coach Kalani Sitake enter the weekend with fresh contract extensions, solidifying the leadership for both programs ahead of this pivotal rematch.

Sitake notably declined interest from the Penn State Nittany Lions to remain in Provo, while McGuire secured a deal through 2032 that reflects the program's rising trajectory. Both coaches expressed belief that the conference deserves two representatives in the final 12-team field regardless of Saturday's outcome.

Both rosters possess significant momentum after dominant wins to close the regular season. The Red Raiders crushed the West Virginia Mountaineers behind quarterback Behren Morton, while the Cougars handled the UCF Knights with a strong performance from quarterback Bear Bachmeier.

Despite identical records, oddsmakers favor Texas Tech significantly, largely due to their defensive dominance against the run and a decisive victory over BYU earlier in November. That previous matchup saw the Red Raiders hold the Cougars to a season-low 255 yards while forcing multiple turnovers.

National analysts are weighing in on whether the Cougars can reverse the previous result or if the Red Raiders will continue their overwhelming play.

On a Wednesday episode of the College GameDay podcast, ESPN host Rece Davis offered his perspective on how the conference title game will unfold. His assessment focused heavily on matchup compatibility and the physical nature of the Texas Tech defense.

Rece Davis Expects A More Competitive BYU, But Clear Texas Tech Win

Davis acknowledged the emotional boost the Cougars likely feel after retaining Sitake and finishing the regular season strong. He predicted BYU would play with high energy and keep the contest closer than the betting line suggests.

However, the veteran host ultimately pointed to roster composition as the deciding factor. Davis argued that Texas Tech presents a nightmare scenario for any opponent lacking an elite offensive line.

"I think Texas Tech is a bad matchup for everybody that doesn't have an elite offensive line," Davis said. "They're one of the teams that I could see winning the national championship."

Texas Tech Red Raiders linebacker Jacob Rodriguez (10) has 101 total tackles, six passes defended, one sack, seven forced fumbles and four interceptions this season. | Nathan Giese/Avalanche-Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Red Raiders boast the top rushing defense in the FBS, allowing just 68.9 yards on the ground per game. Linebacker Jacob Rodriguez anchors that unit. The Heisman Trophy candidate leads the nation with seven forced fumbles and has recorded 101 tackles.

Davis noted that the Red Raiders capitalized on errors like a muffed punt in the first meeting. He also observed that while Texas Tech has settled for field goals in the red zone recently, its defensive front makes it difficult to overcome.

Davis emphasized that if the Red Raiders start converting red zone trips into touchdowns rather than field goals, they become nearly impossible to handle. While he expects the Cougars to acquit themselves well, he does not foresee an upset in Arlington.

"I don't think they're good enough to beat Texas Tech," Davis said. "So, I'll take Texas Tech... I'll say they win by 10."

BYU linebacker Jack Kelly leads the Cougars with nine sacks this season. | Raymond Carlin III-Imagn Images

BYU enters the game ranked ninth nationally in red zone defense, a strength they must leverage to stay competitive against the high-powered Red Raiders offense. Bachmeier noted earlier in the week that his team understands the playoff implications.

The Texas Tech Red Raiders will face the BYU Cougars at AT&T Stadium on Saturday at 12 p.m. ET on ABC.