Rece Davis Predicts Major Road Upset in Ranked Big Ten Showdown

The ESPN analyst views this matchup as a tight matchup between two defense-minded football teams.

IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

ESPN College GameDay host Rece Davis is picking No. 17 Iowa to beat No. 18 Michigan at the Big House on Saturday, even though Michigan is the favorite at home and has won the last four meetings in the series.

Davis made the pick on ESPN's College GameDay Podcast and backed Iowa quarterback Hank Brown in his first career road start. "I think the Hawkeyes get it done, man," Davis said. "I think Brown will play well enough."

Why is Rece Davis picking Iowa?

Iowa Hawkeyes linebacker Cam Buffington (33) | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Davis said the Hawkeyes are "kind of looking a lot like Iowa of old, yet maybe with a little more of an explosive bent." And he started his case with the defense. Iowa has allowed 4.3 points and 176.7 yards per game during its 3-0 start.

"The stats can lie, but these are really fun stats, right?" Davis said. "Iowa gives up four points a game. Michigan's a top-10 defense, too."

He also pointed to how close Iowa came against good teams in 2025. The Hawkeyes finished 9-4, and all four losses came against ranked opponents.

"Iowa lost four games last year, all against good teams, by a grand total of 15 points," Davis said.

Davis expects the running game to get help, too. Kamari Moulton is listed as probable after missing the Northern Iowa game with a lower-leg injury. Xavier Williams ran for 151 yards and three touchdowns in that 55-0 win while Moulton sat.

Hank Brown faces Michigan's defense

Iowa Hawkeyes quarterback Hank Brown | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Brown will make his sixth career start on Saturday and his first on the road. He's completed 45 of 62 passes for 473 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions, and he went 12-of-12 against Northern Iowa.

Still, Michigan's defense is the best unit Brown has faced. The Wolverines have 10 sacks and haven't allowed a rushing touchdown this season.

Davis named the receiver he thinks can help Brown most. "They've got a threat at receiver, Tony Diaz," Davis said. "He's been a threat downfield for them." Diaz leads Iowa with 17 catches for 201 yards, and his 56-yard grab against Iowa State is the team's longest play through the air.

Iowa has struggled in this series lately. Michigan has won four straight meetings, and the Hawkeyes scored 20 total points in those games. Iowa's last win at Michigan Stadium came in 2010.

Michigan's fumbles and injury concerns

Michigan Wolverines head coach Kyle Whittingham | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Michigan's 3-0 start under first-year coach Kyle Whittingham has been uneven. The Wolverines beat Western Michigan 13-12 on a controversial last-second Hail Mary. Then they beat No. 11 Oklahoma 17-10 and UTEP 52-17.

Ball security has been the biggest issue. Michigan has fumbled six times and lost four.

"Big concern," Whittingham said after the UTEP win. "Hopefully that can slow down because six in three games is way too many."

Quarterback Bryce Underwood has thrown for 504 yards with three touchdowns and one interception. The Michigan passer is also the team's leading rusher with 156 yards and two scores.

The Wolverines could also be without starting right tackle Andrew Sprague, who sat out against UTEP with an injury. Whittingham said he was hopeful Sprague would play.

Davis said an Iowa win would set up "a huge showdown in Kinnick next week" when Ohio State visits Iowa City on Oct. 3. Kickoff in Ann Arbor is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS.