Rece Davis Predicts Walk-Off Group of Six Upset With Playoff Stakes Looming

Army and Memphis meet Saturday chasing UTSA in the American, with the loser’s playoff path narrowing three days before the first College Football Playoff rankings.

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ESPN College GameDay host Rece Davis is backing Army to win at Memphis on Saturday, a Halloween night pick that would shake up the American Conference title race and the Group of Six’s chase for a College Football Playoff spot.

Davis called for the Black Knights (5-2, 4-1 American) to win on a walk-off field goal by kicker Dawson Jones, who has already beaten Tulane and Tulsa on final-play kicks this season. “Walk-off field goal, Army wins it on the road,” Davis said.

Rece Davis picks Army at Memphis

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Davis made the pick while praising the coach on the other sideline. Memphis (6-2, 3-1) is in its first season under Charles Huff, who won the 2024 Sun Belt title at Marshall and went 7-5 in his lone season at Southern Miss before Memphis hired him last December.

“I’m going to take that brave old Army team, too,” Davis said. “I’m a real believer in Charles Huff and the future of him as a head coach, the future of Memphis as long as he’s the head coach there.”

Davis’ case against the Tigers came down to how they defend the run.

“I think Army is really difficult to play against, and Memphis’ rush defense has not been good,” Davis said. “They’re 105th in the country, giving up 4.6 yards per carry. That is not a formula for success against the Black Knights of the Hudson.”

Can Memphis stop Army’s rushing attack?

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Quarterback Cale Hellums runs the offense Davis expects to test that front. Hellums ran for a career-high 223 yards in Army’s win over Tulane and then piled up 195 yards and five touchdowns in a 56-24 rout of Florida Atlantic. The West Point offense ranks first nationally in expected points added per rush, according to GameOnPaper, while Memphis’ defense ranks 100th in that category.

Memphis has already been gashed once this season. Boise State ran for 357 yards in its 38-20 win over the Tigers in September, and Tulane forced six turnovers in a 31-17 win over Memphis on Oct. 16.

Still, Army’s defense gives Memphis openings of its own. The Black Knights allowed 503 yards in a 31-29 loss to Louisiana Tech and rank 135th nationally in expected points added per rush allowed. That’s a matchup Memphis running back Jaylin Carter can exploit after he ran for 183 yards and four touchdowns against Arkansas State.

If the game comes down to a final kick, Army has the edge Davis is banking on. Jones drilled a 50-yard field goal as time expired to beat Tulsa 38-35 on Oct. 23, two weeks after his 25-yarder on the final play beat Tulane 20-17.

“I don’t know if it’ll be 50-plus, but I will say a walk-off field goal of some kind,” Davis said. “And Army does it for the third time this year. No pressure, though. Tulsa, Tulane and now Memphis. And he’ll walk off the field, they’ll celebrate, and he’ll go, ‘Thank you. Thank you very much.’ The home of Elvis.”

Group of Six playoff race implications

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Saturday’s loser falls to two conference losses in a crowded American race. UTSA (7-1, 4-0) and North Texas (5-2, 3-0) remain unbeaten in league play, and only the top two teams in the standings reach the American Conference Championship Game.

The bigger prize is the Group of Six’s guaranteed spot in the 12-team College Football Playoff, and Boise State holds the inside track. The Broncos (6-1) sit tied for No. 20 in the AP Top 25, own the win over Memphis and gained ground when James Madison lost to Appalachian State. Boise State is also the Group of Six selection in College Football HQ’s latest playoff projection, and it hosts Oregon State on Nov. 14.

Memphis’ loss in Boise means the Tigers need the Broncos to stumble. Army’s path is narrower after losses to South Florida and Louisiana Tech, so the Black Knights need an American title and help elsewhere.

The selection committee releases its first rankings on Tuesday, Nov. 3 at 7 p.m. ET, three days after Army and Memphis meet. Kickoff is 8 p.m. ET Saturday on ESPNU at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium, where Army plays for the first time since 2002. Memphis won both previous meetings, 42-10 in 2001 and 38-10 in 2002.