Rece Davis Reveals Memphis-Boise State Pick With CFP Stakes Already Rising

The College GameDay host splits from co-host Dan Wetzel on a Week 2 result that could decide the lone Playoff bid available to the Group of 6.

ESPN College Game Day host Rece Davis picked a winner in the big Group of Six matchup between Memphis and Boise State. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Saturday's matchup between Boise State and Memphis at Albertsons Stadium (6 p.m. ET, USA Network) could help sort the Group of 6 College Football Playoff race. Rece Davis and "College GameDay" podcast co-host Dan Wetzel agreed that the winner would gain an important edge in the season-long chase for the Group of 6's only guaranteed berth. They split on the outcome, however, with Wetzel taking Memphis and Davis picking Boise State at home.

Why Rece Davis is taking Boise State

Boise State Broncos quarterback Maddux Madsen (4) throws a pass during the first half against the Oregon Ducks at Autzen Stadium. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Davis said the Broncos need this win and have the setting to get it. Boise State opens its home schedule with a new north end zone and a refreshed blue field at Albertsons Stadium. Davis expects an entertaining, high-scoring game with plenty of swings. He predicted a close finish near the current spread of a little more than a touchdown.

"This game for Boise State is probably, not definitively, but probably make-or-break for getting into the Playoff. They will, in theory, be behind the American teams in the rankings, one would think, because it's not conference champion anymore. It's the highest-ranked team out of the Group of 6. I feel like Boise State needs this. They're at home. They're celebrating new blue turf. I'm going with the Broncos."

What Boise State showed against Oregon

Boise State Broncos head coach Spencer Danielson gives a thumbs-up against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Boise State entered Autzen Stadium as a 24.5-point underdog and nearly stunned No. 2 Oregon before falling 34-27. Maddux Madsen threw for 181 yards and three touchdowns on 15 of 29 passing, though the offensive line struggled with pressure. Boise State has won three straight conference titles, with Madsen leading the Broncos to the last two.

What Charles Huff is building at Memphis

Memphis Tigers Head Coach Charles Huff looks on before the game against Arkansas State. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Charles Huff overhauled the roster in his first offseason, bringing in 61 transfers among 81 total newcomers. Memphis opened 2-0 with a 27-21 Week 0 win over UNLV and a 42-24 victory over Arkansas State. Quarterback Marcus Stokes, defensive linemen Elijah Kinsler and J'Mond Tapp, and running back Jaylin Carter headline the newcomers.

Huff kept the stakes in perspective this week.

"This week, real football team," Huff said of Boise State, before noting ten regular-season games remain and a loss can happen in any of them.

What the game means for the College Football Playoff

The College Football Playoff national champion trophy at the CFP Champions press conference at the Marriott Marquis Miami. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Boise State is the favorite to represent the Group of 6 in the Playoff at +350, with Memphis among the top challengers at +1000. The format change means the Group of 6 will likely earn just one bid in 2026, and the Pac-12 and American are the strongest of those conferences. Saturday’s result could become an important head-to-head data point for the selection committee in December. Both teams received votes in this week's AP poll, and a win could push either into the Top 25.

The two programs have met once before: a 35-32 Boise State loss in 2023 in which Ashton Jeanty scored all four Broncos' touchdowns. Six weeks after that game, Boise State fired head coach Andy Avalos and promoted Spencer Danielson, who now leads the Broncos into their first Pac-12 season.