Tennessee vs. Illinois prediction: Who wins the Music City Bowl, and why?

The latest offering from college football bowl season brings us a notable SEC vs. Big Ten clash from Nashville as Tennessee and Illinois face off in the 2025 Music City Bowl game.

The matchup marks a first, as the Volunteers and Fighting Illini have never before met in football, and this will be the first time Illinois plays this particular bowl, while Tennessee is 1-2 in this venue.

Tennessee vs. Illinois: What to watch

Tennessee vs. Illinois Music City Bowl football game prediction 2025 — Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images

1. Tennessee’s run game and early downs

Tennessee’s offense is built around tempo and wants to establish a physical run game to set up advantageous second and third downs and open play‑action shots.

If the Vols consistently win on early downs, Illinois will be forced to allocate extra defenders to the box, which would stress linebackers and safeties and creates conflict in their run‑pass keys.

If Illinois instead controls first down with gap integrity and makes tackles near the line of scrimmage, Tennessee’s tempo advantage erodes because second‑and‑long situations limit play‑calling flexibility and make the offense more predictable.

2. Illinois explosives in the passing game

On the other side, Illinois needs to create explosive plays through the air rather than relying solely on long, methodical drives.

Recent Illini offenses have generally been more effective when they can sprinkle in vertical shots, one‑on‑one wins outside and schemed explosives off play action or stacked and bunch formations.

Against Tennessee’s typically aggressive perimeter defense, successful deep passes and intermediate chunk gains can flip field position and keep the Vols from sitting on those patterns.

If Illinois fails to hit on a handful of explosive passing plays, it risks operating in a narrow margin where every drive must be efficient, which plays into Tennessee’s relative defensive strengths on passing downs.

3. Field position and situational downs

Bowl games between comparable Power Four teams often turn on hidden yardage from punt and kickoff coverage, return production, and net punting rather than just raw offensive yardage.

A team that consistently starts drives closer to midfield and avoids special‑teams penalties can manufacture scoring opportunities even if its offense is inconsistent.

Add in key third‑and‑short conversions, smart fourth‑down choices near midfield and clean operation in the red zone, and the overall situational profile can offset talent gaps.

In a bowl environment with roster changes and a long layoff, the side that better manages these situational details often compensates for schematic disadvantages and emerges with the win.

Tennessee vs. Illinois prediction: Who wins?

Line: Tennessee -3.5, 62.5

The lack of a few important contributors on defense and both teams fielding their productive starting quarterbacks could point to something like a shootout.

Neither of these defenses was particularly great even with their regular personnel, so they just might leave a few lanes open for Altmyer and Aguilar to exploit, something they have proven they can do.

Tennessee has a pass rushing combination that could be the decisive factor, especially against an Illinois protection alignment that was one of the worst in the Big Ten in sacks allowed.

College Football HQ picks...

Tennessee wins 38-34
Covers the spread
And hits the over

How to watch Tennessee vs. Illinois

When: Tues., Dec. 30
Where: Nashville

Time: 5:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: ESPN network

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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