Tennessee vs. Syracuse new football prediction: What the analytics say

Tennessee and Syracuse square off in this SEC vs. ACC matchup to kick off the 2025 college football season. Let’s take a look at the latest prediction for the contest from an analytical model that simulates games and picks winners.

Tennessee made its first College Football Playoff a year ago, but was knocked out by a 42-17 count by eventual national champion Ohio State in the first round.

And the Vols’ offense is undergoing some major turnover as this season kicks off, losing starting quarterback Nico Iamaleava to the transfer portal this spring, and won’t have lead rusher Dylan Sampson, replaces key receivers, and installs four new blockers.

Syracuse piloted college football’s best overall passing attack last season, but quarterback Kyle McCord is out of the picture, with Notre Dame transfer Steve Angeli taking his place, and the Orange projected to finish 12th in the ACC this year.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Tennessee vs. Syracuse football prediction

As it tends to, the computer models are siding squarely with the SEC squad in this matchup against its ACC counterpart.

Tennessee is the strong favorite to win the game, coming out ahead in 88.6 percent of the computer’s simulations for the matchup.

That leaves Syracuse as the projected winner in the remaining 11.4 percent of sims.

In total, Tennessee is expected to come out ahead in the majority 17,720 of the computer’s projections, while Syracuse edged out the Vols in the other 2,280 predictions.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

Tennessee is projected to be 15.3 points better than Syracuse on the same field in both teams’ current form, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that would be enough for the Volunteers to cover the spread against the Orange.

That’s because Tennessee is a 13.5 point favorite against Syracuse, according to the latest game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 50.5 points for the matchup.

And it set the moneyline odds for Tennessee at -610 and for Syracuse at +440 to win the game outright.

Where the money is going

A large majority of bets are siding with the Volunteers to dominate the Orange in this non-conference matchup, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Tennessee is getting 74 percent of bets to not only win the game, but to beat the Orange by at least two touchdowns and cover the generous point spread.

The remaining 26 percent of wagers project Syracuse will either defeat the Volunteers outright in an upset, or to lose the game by under 14 points.

Tennessee vs. Syracuse future projections

Tennessee checked in at the No. 8 position on the Power Index’s updated 136-team college football rankings heading into the Week 1 opener.

The model forecasts the Vols will win 9.0 games this season and is expected to be 16.6 points better than an average opponent on a neutral field.

And they have a projected 43.4 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff despite having just a 5.9 percent shot to win the SEC championship.

Syracuse debuted in the No. 63 position in the computer’s national team rankings and is projected to be 0.6 points better than average opponents.

The computer expects the Orange will win 4.6 games in 2025.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

How good is the prediction model?

How accurate has the College Football Power Index computer prediction model been in recent memory? Last season, it was one of a select few to surpass the 70 percent success threshold.

Predicting a total of 799 college football games a year ago, the Power Index computers were correct for 70.964 percent of their final picks, ranking eighth nationally out of 55 other football models.

And it was one of a select few models that went over 50 percent when making its predictions against the spread, coming out ahead in 52.235 percent of its ATS projections. That was good for second-best among all college football prediction models among 55 various outlets.

Over the last decade, the Football Power Index has proven correct on 75 percent of FBS college football game predictions, including in 73 percent of matchups when it favored a team with at least 70 percent likelihood to win.

How to watch Tennessee vs. Syracuse

When: Sat., Aug. 30
Where: Atlanta, Ga.

Time: 12 p.m. Eastern
TV: ABC network

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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