Texas A&M vs. Missouri score prediction by expert football model

A very important SEC matchup kicks off this weekend between ranked teams, as No. 3 Texas A&M goes on the road against No. 22 Missouri in Week 11 college football action.

Texas A&M remains the last undefeated team in the SEC and has played some of its best football when playing on the road, while Missouri is just 2-2 in conference play and looking to play spoiler while also hoping to revive its fragile postseason chances.

What do the analytics predict as the Aggies visit the Tigers this weekend?

For that, we turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Texas A&M and Missouri compare in this Week 11 college football game, and use it to lock in our own projection.

Texas A&M vs. Missouri score prediction

The model is siding with the visiting team to stay undefeated here, but in a very close result.

SP+ predicts that Texas A&M will defeat Missouri by a projected score of 28 to 27 and will win the game by an expected margin of just 1.2 points.

The model gives the Aggies a narrow 53 percent chance of outright victory over Mizzou.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ college football prediction model is 263-253 against the spread with a 55.8 win percentage. Last week, it was 29-23 (55.8%) in its picks against the spread.

Who is favored?

The betting markets believe in the Aggies by slightly less than a touchdown over the Tigers.

Texas A&M is a 6.5 point favorite against Missouri, according to the latest game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 48.5 points for the matchup, and set the moneyline odds for Texas A&M at -270 and for Missouri at +220 to win outright.

What we think will happen

Texas A&M arrives undefeated, riding momentum and a physical run-game that sets the tone on both sides of the line.

Missouri’s defense has been stout all season, but their offense is dealing with turnover issues and inconsistency with their quarterback.

Expect A&M to take control early, play smart and efficient, and force Missouri into mistakes.

Missouri may keep things competitive for a while, but Texas A&M should pull away in the second half.

Texas A&M -6.5
Aggies to win -270
Take the over

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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