Texas Tech vs. BYU score prediction for Big 12 Championship Game by expert football model

Texas Tech and BYU have already squared off this season in a decisive Red Raiders victory, but now both face off in a rematch for the Big 12 championship and contention in the College Football Playoff.

Texas Tech is playing arguably its greatest football season ever and has basically confirmed a place in the field, while BYU is currently on the outside of the bracket with a chance to break in with a win here.

Tech dominated the Cougars by a 29-7 count back in early November, the only loss for BYU in 2025.

What can we expect as the Cougars and Red Raiders face off in Arlington?

For that, we turn to the SP+ college football prediction model to get a preview of how Texas Tech and BYU compare, and use it to lock in our own projection.

Texas Tech vs. BYU score prediction

As might be expected, the model is siding with the favorite in this rematch.

SP+ predicts that Texas Tech will defeat BYU by a projected score of 33 to 21 and to win the game by an expected margin of 11.7 points in the process.

The model forecasts the Red Raiders have a 77 percent chance to defeat the Cougars outright.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ college football prediction model is 387-365 against the spread with a 51.5 win percentage. Last week, it was 38-29 (56.7%) in its picks against the spread.

What the bookies think

Betting markets overwhelming favor the Red Raiders to make it two-straight against the Cougars.

Texas Tech is a 12.5 point favorite against BYU, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 49.5 points for the matchup, and set the moneyline odds for Texas Tech at -500 and for BYU at +385 to win outright.

Texas Tech is also a big favorite with an 80 percent chance to win the game, according to the latest figures posted on the predicted market Kalshi.

BYU has the remaining 20 percent chance to pull out the upset.

What we think will happen

Texas Tech is playing some of the best defense in program history and leads or nearly leads the Big 12 in the most important categories, led by linebacker Jacob Rodriguez and edge rusher David Bailey.

BYU has built an impressive ground game behind the production of tailback LJ Martin, who has over 1,200 rushing yards with 11 touchdowns while averaging almost 6 yards per carry, a credible test for the Tech defense to contend with.

Martin was not healthy for the first game against the Red Raiders, but will be ready for the rematch, an edge that will allow BYU to get more aggressive and keep this close.

College Football HQ predicts: Texas Tech wins the Big 12 championship, but BYU covers.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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