Texas Tech vs. Utah prediction: Who wins, and why?

What to watch for as Texas Tech and Utah face off in this battle of undefeated Big 12 title hopefuls on Saturday, with our updated prediction for the game.

Both these teams are undefeated through three games and looking to stake a stronger claim as the perceived favorite in the conference championship race early this season.

Texas Tech is hoping to show off some of the new players it acquired through the transfer portal after an active and expensive offseason in the transfer portal, especially on a revamped defense that so far has looked the part.

But the Red Raiders will face a considerable upgrade in competition this week, against a Utah squad that is playing lights out on both sides of the football after its own transfer haul includes gains like dual-threat quarterback Devon Dampier.

What can we expect as the Red Raiders and Utes face off in this Big 12 opener?

Here’s what you should watch for as Texas Tech pays a visit to Utah in this Week 4 college football game, with our updated prediction for the matchup.

Utah vs. Texas Tech prediction: What to watch for

Texas Tech vs. Utah football game prediction — Nathan Giese/Avalanche-Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

1. The first half

Part of the Red Raiders’ improved defensive output so far this season has seen the team not allow a single point to any opponent in the first half of a game thus far.

Texas Tech’s offense has put up 123 points in the first half of games against Pine Bluff, Kent State, and Oregon State, while its defense is yet to let anyone score before the intermission.

That makes Tech the only team in the FBS to have put up more than 100 points in the first half of games, and it’s 1 of 3 that’s yet to surrender a point, while ranking first in the country by averaging 38 first-half points per game.

Utah has scored 61 combined points in the first half of its three games, averaging 20.3 points before the break, against UCLA, Cal Poly, and Wyoming.

2. Making/eliminating the big plays

Texas Tech, college football’s No. 1 ranked scoring offense in three weeks, has scored 14 passing touchdowns off the arm of Behren Morton, with 9 of those scores coming from 20 or more yards away.

Utah’s defense must limit Morton’s big-play ability with his receivers and force the Red Raiders’ offense to take on longer drives and force the issue at the line of scrimmage and prove to be the more physical team.

Limiting the Texas Tech offense on early downs will be imperative for the Utes, as Morton has covered over 421 of this 923 passing yards (46%) on first down alone.

3. Battle at the line

The key matchup in the game will be whoever wins the battle in the trenches between Utah’s superb offensive line and Texas Tech’s much-improved defensive rotation.

This will possibly be the best group of blockers the Red Raiders go up against this year, featuring anchors like Spencer Fano, who is yet to allow a sack this season, and Caleb Lomu at the tackle positions.

Utah’s line has powered a productive ground attack, opening up lanes for a group of backs that stack up nearly 300 rushing yards per game on average.

Tech’s pursuit group is considered the best at what it does, according to Pro Football Focus’ updated numbers heading into this weekend.

Edge rushers like David Bailey and Romello Height will challenge Utah’s blockers while Skyler Gill-Howard, the No. 1 defensive lineman in the country by PFF’s numbers, will clog up the Utes’ interior running outlets.

Behind that line is linebacker Jacob Rodriguez, the single-best player at the position last week, according to PFF, the figurehead in what the outlet calls the best run defense in college football.

Who is favored?

Utah is a 3.5 point favorite against Texas Tech, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 57.5 points for the matchup.

And it set the moneyline odds for Utah at -160 and for Texas Tech at +132 to win outright.

Texas Tech vs. Utah prediction: Who wins?

Utah vs. Texas Tech prediction 2025 — Rob Gray-Imagn Images

Both these offenses have been on point, but neither has faced the caliber of defense they’re about to.

Texas Tech has the personnel to both prevent Utah from building enough momentum on the ground on the inside, and to close down any outside running lanes for quarterback Devon Dampier to take advantage of.

By containing Dampier in the pocket and limiting the Utah backs to moderate gains, they can force the quarterback to win the game with his arm, something he hasn’t had to do yet, and he has been prone to turnovers in the past.

Offensively, the Red Raiders can also balance their offense well enough to slow down the Utes’ pass rush and test a secondary that is missing some important personnel.

College Football HQ picks...

Texas Tech wins 34-31
In an upset
And hits the over

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