Analytical model predicts winner of Georgia vs. Texas game

A major SEC clash will kick off under the lights this weekend, as No. 5 Georgia returns home against surging No. 10 Texas in Week 12 college football action.

Georgia is 6-1 in conference play and sitting right behind SEC leaders Texas A&M and Alabama, with a loss to the latter, while Texas is on a four-game win streak and just beat a good Vanderbilt team.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Georgia vs. Texas predictions

A computer model gives Georgia a slight advantage over Texas, predicting the Bulldogs to win 59.8% of the time across 20,000 simulated matchups.

The Longhorns came out on top in the other 40.2% of simulations.

In total, Georgia prevailed in 11,960 of the simulated games, while Texas won 8,040 times.

On average, the model projects Georgia to be about 2.5 points better than Texas on the same field — suggesting a competitive contest with the Bulldogs holding a very modest edge.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

How good is the prediction model?

How accurate was the College Football Power Index computer prediction model last Saturday?

Projecting the games a week ago, the Power Index models correctly predicted 67 percent of all games and hit 57 percent against the spread.

Predicting a total of 799 college football games a year ago, the Power Index computers were correct for 70.964 percent of their final picks, ranking eighth nationally out of 55 other football models.

Over the last decade, the Football Power Index has proven correct on 75 percent of FBS college football game predictions, including in 73 percent of matchups when it favored a team with at least 70 percent likelihood to win.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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